After witnessing a sharp correction in the first half of March due to geopolitical tensions, Indian equity markets have staged a recovery this week. Benchmark indices - the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 - have rebounded over 2,100 points and 600 points, respectively, in the past three sessions. The sustained rally has made investors richer by ₹9.5 lakh crore, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies rising to ₹438.88 lakh crore.

Analysts attribute the rebound to value buying following the recent sell-off, supported by relatively stable global cues, though volatility remains elevated. They caution investors against aggressive positioning, recommending a stock-specific approach with disciplined risk management amid an uncertain global backdrop.

Extending gains for the third consecutive session, the Sensex rose 633.29 points, or 0.83%, to close at 76,704.13, while the Nifty50 advanced 196.65 points, or 0.83%, to settle at 23,777.80. Broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty MidCap and Nifty SmallCap indices gaining 1.94% and 1.70%, respectively.

The rally was led by IT and realty stocks, which saw strong buying ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting due later tonight. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will closely watch policymakers’ commentary for cues on how ongoing US-Iran tensions could shape the future rate trajectory.

“The sharp rebound in the IT pack was a key highlight and played a critical role in driving today’s recovery. However, lingering geopolitical tensions, weakness in the rupee, and the possibility of renewed volatility in crude oil prices continue to keep market participants cautious,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

Eternal, TechM, Infosys, TCS among top gainers

On the BSE Sensex pack, 24 out of 30 stocks ended in positive terrain, led by Eternal, which gained 3.37%. IT majors were also among notable gainers, with Tech Mahindra gaining 3.27%, Infosys up 2.84%, HCLTech advancing 2.62%, and Tata Consultancy Services adding 2.07%.

Among others, Mahindra & Mahindra rose 2.68%, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone gained 2.54%, while Axis Bank and Larsen & Toubro also ended higher.

On the flip side, NTPC was the top laggard, declining by 1.29%, followed by Hindustan Unilever which fell 1.04% and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries which slipped 0.87%. HDFC Bank and ITC Limited also ended in the red, though declines remained modest.

All sectoral indices closed in the green, barring Nifty FMCG and Metals - with Media, IT, and Realty posting the strongest advances. The Nifty IT index emerged as the top gainer, rising 2.78%, driven by strong buying in frontline technology stocks. The Nifty Media index surged 3.35%, while the Nifty Realty index climbed 2.75%, reflecting strength in rate-sensitive sectors.

Nifty faces immediate resistance at 23,860–24,000 zone

According to Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the Nifty 50 has rebounded over 900 points from its recent swing low of 22,953 and has reclaimed levels above its 5-day exponential moving average (DEMA) of 23,664 for the first time since February 26, 2026.

However, he noted that the index continues to trade below its 20- and 50-DEMA, indicating that the broader downtrend remains intact and could lead to bouts of profit booking.

Rajani highlighted that immediate resistance for the Nifty is placed in the 23,860–24,000 zone, while support has shifted higher to around 23,350.

Rupee hits fresh record low

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee slid to a record low of 92.62 against the US dollar on Wednesday, breaching its previous low of 92.4750 touched last week. The sharp depreciation comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have kept crude oil prices elevated, raising concerns for India’s macro stability and dampening capital flows.

“The Indian rupee plunged to a fresh record low as a break below the 92.50 level sparked a sharp sell-off, exacerbated by thin dollar liquidity ahead of the bank holiday. Despite a backdrop of strong risk appetite and softer crude prices, the currency faced aggressive importer dollar demand,” said Dilip Parmar – Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

“With geopolitical tensions stoking fears of a wider trade deficit, year-end demand remains robust. We see USDINR facing resistance at 92.85, with support at 92.40,” he added.

The rupee has weakened over 1.5% since the conflict began, while Brent crude prices have surged nearly 40% during the same period.

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