NSE IPO GMP, Karamtara, Steamhouse, ARCIL: Grey market stays hot as stocks bleed

The IPO party is showing little sign of cooling off in the grey market, even as the secondary market came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, with the much-awaited National Stock Exchange (NSE) IPO emerging as the biggest draw.

NSE's IPO, which opens for subscription on September 17, is commanding a ₹190 grey market premium (GMP) over its upper price band of ₹1,785, according to data from the InvestorGain. This implies an estimated listing price of around ₹1,975, or a 10.64% premium to the issue price.

The GMP, however, has moderated from ₹310 on September 5 and ₹285 on September 4, reflecting the broader weakness in equities and a gradual cooling in grey-market expectations. InvestorGain data showed the premium at ₹192 on Thursday.

NSE is offering up to 12.64 crore existing shares through an offer for sale (OFS), with the issue scheduled to close on September 21 and the stock expected to list on September 24. The price band has been fixed at ₹1,700-1,785 a share. At the upper end, the exchange is looking at a valuation of around ₹4.42 lakh crore.

NSE trims IPO size as valuation expectations cool

The NSE IPO was originally expected to be a roughly ₹30,000-crore offering, which would have made it India's largest IPO, surpassing Hyundai Motor India's ₹27,870-crore issue.

However, the exchange has trimmed the OFS to 12.64 crore shares from 14.89 crore shares proposed earlier, bringing the issue size down to roughly ₹22,500-23,000 crore. This is a reduction of about ₹7,000 crore from the original plan, not a reduction of NSE's overall valuation to ₹2.3 lakh crore.

The lower issue size followed a lower-than-expected price band and cuts in share sales by several existing investors. Investors also saw limited upside in selling at the IPO valuation when NSE shares were changing hands at higher levels in the unlisted market. Regulatory changes affecting derivatives trading have additionally weighed on valuation expectations. These include tighter curbs on retail options participation, higher taxes on derivatives and the impact of the recently introduced closing auction session.

Despite that, NSE's underlying numbers remain strong. Its June-quarter net profit rose 6.7% to ₹3,120 crore, while revenue from operations increased 13% to ₹4,560 crore.

Karamtara, Steamhouse also command strong premiums

Among the three IPOs closing for subscription on Friday, Karamtara Engineering is commanding a GMP of ₹65, according to InvestorGain data. At the ₹254 upper price band, this points to an estimated listing price of ₹319, representing a 25.59% premium.

The ₹875-crore issue comprises a ₹675-crore fresh issue and ₹200 crore OFS. The company manufactures solar mounting structures, tracker components and transmission-line products. Its FY26 revenue rose 36% to ₹4,316 crore, while PAT jumped 64% to ₹228.75 crore.

Steamhouse India, meanwhile, has seen its GMP rise to ₹22.75, InvestorGain data showed, implying a listing price of around ₹103.75 against the ₹81 issue price — a 28.09% premium. Its ₹414-crore IPO consists of ₹353 crore fresh equity and ₹61 crore OFS.

Asset Reconstruction Company (India), or ARCIL, is quoting a GMP of ₹14 against its ₹139 issue price, implying a listing premium of 10.07% at ₹153. The ₹732.97-crore issue is entirely an OFS and closes on Friday.

Primary market optimism meets secondary-market pain

The divergence between the two markets is stark. Indian equities opened sharply lower on Friday, with the Nifty 50 falling around 1% and the Sensex nearly 1%, as Brent crude surged above $108 a barrel amid escalating West Asia tensions.

The sell-off has been broad-based, with financials, metals and auto stocks among the major laggards. The Nifty and Sensex were also heading for their fifth consecutive weekly decline, according to Reuters.

Yet in the primary market, the appetite remains remarkably resilient — with NSE, Karamtara, Steamhouse and ARCIL all carrying positive grey-market premiums as investors continue to hunt for listing gains despite the bloodbath on Dalal Street.

(DISCLAIMER: GMP is an unofficial indicator and does not guarantee the actual listing price. The views and opinions expressed by investment experts on fortuneindia.com are either their own or of their organisations, but not necessarily that of fortuneindia.com and its editorial team. Readers are advised to consult certified experts before taking investment decisions.)