Shares of Indian oil companies witnessed volatility today amid uncertainty over the outlook for international crude prices in the backdrop of U.S.-Venezuela geopolitical tensions. On Saturday, the U.S. carried out a large-scale military strike against the oil-rich nation and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

Oil prices showed little reaction to the geopolitical shock, with Brent crude futures falling 0.56% to $60.41 per barrel today, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 0.65% at $56.95. On Friday, Brent crude futures ended below $61 a barrel in subdued trading, while WTI closed above $57 a barrel.

Weighed down by the development, shares of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), the largest crude oil and natural gas company in India, declined as much as 2.38% to ₹235.75 on the BSE, paring opening gains. In early trade, the oil and gas heavyweight had gained as much as 2% to ₹246.40.

Other state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) also saw volatility, with Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), GAIL India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Oil India, and Petronet LNG falling up to 2% during the trade so far.

Meanwhile, shares of Reliance Industries (RIL), the country’s most valued stock, were trading flat after rising over 1% in early trade to hit their 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 on the BSE. Among others, Adani Total Gas shares dropped over 1.5%.

Analysts flag near-term supply disruption

According to Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, the U.S.–Venezuela tensions will trigger short-term volatility in crude oil. “The escalation of U.S.–Venezuela tensions, highlighted by the January 3, 2026 military operation to oust Nicolás Maduro and a subsequent naval blockade, has imposed a significant ‘geopolitical risk premium’ on energy markets.”

While the immediate effect on global oil supply is limited, the change in control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves poses critical implications for heavy crude pricing and long-term supply forecasts. Current Venezuelan production stands at 800,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day, roughly 1% of global supply, he said.

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP, Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said multiple factors have helped cap any meaningful risk premium in global crude prices despite the U.S.–Venezuela tensions. These include OPEC+ maintaining its current output policy, the absence of damage to key Venezuelan oil infrastructure during the military action, and Venezuela’s relatively small share in global crude supply. As a result, markets have so far avoided pricing in a sharp supply shock.

“In the medium term, however, a U.S.-led push to revive Venezuela’s oil industry could eventually add barrels back to the market, particularly if it encourages American energy firms to invest in a country that holds more than 300 billion barrels, or roughly 20% of the world’s oil reserves,” Chainwala added.

Ankita Pathak, Head – Global Investments at Ionic Asset, said crude oil may experience intermittent spikes due to near-term supply disruptions, but the longer-term bias remains negative as supply dynamics improve.

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