Market in firm bear grip? Deep correction likely if Nifty breaks 22,000 level

Is Indian stock market in a firm bear grip? While it is difficult to say yes firmly, but certain signs and factors indicate a bearish sentiment. The Nifty50, the benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange of India, has been under relentless stress for the last five months, and on Friday it broke its 29-year record with 5 consecutive months of fall. Several factors have contributed to the market's decline, including sustained foreign fund outflows, weak corporate earnings, and mounting economic uncertainty amid U.S. tariff concerns.

On February 28, the NSE Nifty ended 420 points, or 1.86%, lower at 22,125, registering its biggest single-day slump in around five months. The BSE benchmark Sensex ended with a loss of 1,414 points, or 1.9%, at 73,198. February was a punishing month for Indian equities, with the Nifty50 index tumbling 5.9% last month, while it nosedived nearly 16% from its life-time high of 26,277 touched in September 27, 2024. Similarly, the Sensex plunged 4,300 points, or 5.5% last month, while it lost 12,780 points, or 14.86%, from the record peak of 85,978.25 in September last year.

This marks the fifth consecutive month of losses, reinforcing a clear downtrend as the indices breached its longest monthly losing streak in the last 29 years (since 1996). With this, the Nifty slipped below its 20-month exponential moving average (20-MEMA), further cementing its bearish trajectory

22K holds as last support for Nifty

According to market analysts, a break below 22,000 level may trigger a “deeper correction” in Nifty and the next major support stands at 21,500.

“Currently, Nifty hovers near the critical 22,000 level, the last line of defence for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward the next major support at 21,500,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities. The analyst believes that the Nifty50 could find support at 22,000, and immediate resistance at 22,500 level.

Technically, Nifty has formed a bearish candle on weekly charts and is holding a lower top formation on daily and intraday charts, which is largely negative, said Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities.

He believes that the current market condition is weak but oversold, hence the strong possibility of a pullback rally from the current levels cannot be ruled out. For short-term traders, 22,200 and 73500 would be the key level to watch out for Nifty and Sensex, respectively. “Below this, the market could slip to 22,000-21,800/73000-72500. On the flip side, if the index sustains above 22,200/73500, sentiment could change. Above 22,200/73500, we may see a quick pullback rally up to 22300/74000, with further upside potential that could lift the market up to 22500/74500.”

Echoing the same, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said Nifty is expected to find support around 21,800-22,000 level in the near term. “A sustained move above 21,800 could lead to a significant recovery, while failure to hold this level may trigger another sharp decline."

48K remains key support for Bank Nifty 

On Bank Nifty, Dhameja said that the index is exhibiting greater resilience than the benchmark Nifty, experiencing less selling pressure and demonstrating strong recoveries from lower levels. However, despite this relative strength, the Nifty Bank index has now recorded its third consecutive month of losses, slipping below the 10-MEMA. On February 28, Nifty Bank closed at 48,334.70, down 0.82%, or 399.10 points, reflecting an ongoing cautious sentiment.

“The 48,000 mark now stands as a crucial support level, serving as the final line of defence for bulls. Meanwhile, lingering geopolitical uncertainties and lack of a strong recovery underscore the continued bearish grip on the market,” he said.

Meanwhile, Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities believes that as long as Nifty Bank index trades below 48,500, weak sentiment is likely to continue on the downside, with immediate support zones at 48,000 and 47,500. However, if it moves above 48,500, it could bounce back to 49,250-49,500 or the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average).