Red Sea shipping steady as Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb traffic holds; VLCC routes shift amid security risks

Vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz remained broadly stable on July 27, with 32 ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb and 15 passing through Hormuz, according to a report by S&P Global. 

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained at around 75% of the average daily transit volume recorded during June and the first half of July, reflecting continued caution among shipping operators amid heightened security concerns in the Red Sea. 

Of the 32 vessels, 11 ships (34%) travelled northbound into the Red Sea, while the remaining 21 vessels headed south towards Djibouti and the Gulf of Aden. Nearly all northbound vessels were transiting the Red Sea en route to the Suez Canal, Egypt or Jordan. 

Among the southbound traffic, eight vessels had previously called at Saudi Arabian Red Sea ports, while the others originated from Egypt or Jordan or had transited the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean and Europe. The southbound fleet also included six tankers carrying Russian-origin crude oil. 

S&P Global highlighted the movement of the AMCL-operated VLCC New Pearl, which loaded 2 million barrels of Saudi crude at Yanbu on July 25 and is currently transiting the Gulf of Aden en route to Zhoushan, China. AMCL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Energy Shipping. 

The report also noted that persistent security threats in the Red Sea are reshaping crude shipping routes, potentially creating a new export corridor for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) through the Mediterranean. 

Three VLCCs linked to DHT Holdings are currently sailing north towards Ain Sukhna and the Suez Canal after loading crude at Yanbu in recent days. 

One of them, the DHT Mustang, has already transited the Suez Canal and is currently partially laden after likely discharging part of its 2 million-barrel cargo at Ain Sukhna on July 25. The vessel is expected to reload crude transported via the SUMED pipeline at Sidi Kerir before continuing to its final destination, which has not yet been disclosed. 

The findings suggest that while overall vessel traffic through key Middle East maritime chokepoints has stabilised, ongoing security risks in the Red Sea continue to influence shipping patterns and crude oil logistics.