Economic Survey 2026 LIVE Updates: FY27 GDP growth projected at 6.8-7.2%

Even against a backdrop of heightened global trade tensions and tariff pressures, India’s external sector remained resilient, with total exports of goods and services touching a record $825.3 billion in FY25 and maintaining momentum into FY26, the Economic Survey 2026 said on Thursday.

Despite higher tariffs imposed by the United States, merchandise exports grew 2.4% during April–December 2025, while services exports rose a stronger 6.5%, underscoring the economy’s growing reliance on services as a key external buffer. Merchandise imports increased by 5.9% in the same period, leading to a wider goods trade deficit, which was largely offset by a higher services trade surplus and robust remittance inflows.

The Survey noted that remittances have consistently exceeded gross FDI inflows, reinforcing their importance as a stable source of external financing. As a result, India’s current account deficit remained moderate at 0.8% of GDP in H1 FY26, despite global headwinds.

Agriculture and allied activities contribute nearly one-fifth of India’s national income at current prices, but account for 46.1% of the country’s workforce. Given the relatively large share of employment in agriculture and allied activities, the sector remains central to India’s overall growth trajectory. Strengthening agricultural performance is therefore important for inclusive growth and ensuring food security.

India’s external sector has evolved amidst a global environment characterised by heightened trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical realignments, and a structural shift away from a hyper-globalisation phase. The reconfiguration of global trade and investment flows, increasingly influenced by considerations of national security, technological sovereignty, and strategic autonomy, has introduced both new constraints and opportunities for emerging economies. 

In this changing environment, India’s external performance demonstrates resilience to global shocks and highlights the structural characteristics associated with a rapidly growing economy that is integrating more deeply into global markets.

Domestic economy remains on a stable footing. Inflation has moderated to historically low levels, although some firming is expected to occur going forward. Balance sheets across households, firms and banks are healthier, and public investment continues to support activity. Consumption demand remains resilient, and private investment intentions are improving," the Economic Survey said.  

"These conditions provide resilience against external shocks and support the continuation of growth momentum. The forthcoming rebasing of the CPI series in the coming year will also have implications for inflation assessment and warrant careful interpretation of price dynamics," it added.  

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tables the Economic Survey 2026 in Parliament today, attention is on whether last year’s India-Pakistan conflict had any material impact on the economy. 

Industry experts believe the impact is likely to be negligible, given minimal bilateral trade and India’s diversified, resilient economic base. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also downplayed macroeconomic risks arising from the tensions. That said, it is anticipated that both Economic Survey and the budget will have a take on the defence sector of the economy. Defence indigenization is likely to receive a major thrust. Will the Survey lay down policy framework for the same?  

Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had said the conflict with Pakistan last year had a “very, very limited, negligible impact” on overall economic activity and growth. While there was some short-term disruption—particularly in northern India due to airport closures and reduced air passenger traffic—there were no major supply chain disruptions, he noted on June 6.  

The Economic Survey 2025-26 is expected to project GDP growth of around 7.4%, based on the First Advance Estimates, significantly higher than the 6.3%–6.8% range projected in the previous Survey. 

Economic survey 2025-26 is likely to maintain a cautious approach on the growth outlook for 2026-27, given the geopolitical and tariff disruptions.  Even though the government initiated multiple reforms in the current financial year, including a complete overhaul of the Income Tax Act, GST rationalisation and rate rejig with focus on ease of doing business, kick-starting the long-pending labour reforms,  and finalisation of the key trade pacts with the UK and the EU, the external situation continues to remain challenging.    

There is no breakthrough in the trade talks with the US and US-Iran tensions continue to threaten the global economy. That said there is no positive development on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks as well, and India's Russian oil pipeline is almost severed. All these developments are likely to have a bearing on the FY27 GDP projections in the Economy Survey. 

Indian equity witnessed selling pressure ahead of today’s (January 29, 2026) Budget session. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to table Economic Survey 2026 in both Houses of Parliament today.

At the time of reporting, the Sensex was trading 546.82points or 0.66% lower at 81,797.86, while the Nifty50 declined to 25,188.15, down 154.61 points or 0.61%.

Data from the past five years show that equity benchmarks—the Sensex and the Nifty50—ended higher on three out of five Economic Survey days.