Economic Survey 2026 Updates: India can touch 7.5-8% GDP growth in next few years, says CEA Nageswaran

We have done well. We are doing better, post-Covid. But the world is unpredictable and dangerous. We have promises to keep and miles to go before we can sleep, CEA said.

Reform express pushes India's potential GDP growth to 7%. That is why the GDP projection for FY27 has been kept at 6.8-7.2%. This is subject to risk factors, which may derail the calculations on short term basis. But on medium term trend growth for the Indian economy we believe now it is 7%. If we are able to achieve manufacturing and export competitiveness, and pursue further process in the areas of land and bring down the cost in manufacturing, this 7% can even rise to 7.5% or 8% in the next few years as well. In conclusion, we have done well and we are doing better.

A number of trade deals have been finalised in the last few months. EU - India trade deal offers true geographical diversification for the Indian exports, CEA said.

Swadeshi has become critical as the nature of the global system has shifted; trade is no longer reciprocal and markets are no longer neutral, CEA said.

The private sector needs to allow food labelling to enable people to make conscious choices on what they consume, said CEA.

Weakness in rupee is due to capital outflows on account of higher interest rates globally. It does not indicate macro instability, said CEA.

With the kind of foundations for sustained growth in the second half, we are projecting FY27 growth at 6.8% -7.2% on the back of domestic accomplishments, said CEA.

Healthy banking fundamentals and stronger credit momentum.

The Economic Survey 2025–26 highlights that while artificial intelligence (AI) presents significant opportunities for India’s services exports and innovation ecosystem, its implementation comes with substantial challenges and risks. The Survey notes that globally, leveraged AI investments and speculative capital deployment pose potential threats to financial stability, even as AI adoption accelerates.

India is tracking 7.4% real GDP growth in FY26, while we expect it to be slightly higher at 7.5% to 7.9%, but what is interesting to note that the next year fiscal growth is pegged at 6.8% to 7.2%, said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India. Clearly, there is a lot of confidence that growth is resilient and is expected to remain so and India is becoming structurally self-propelled via domestic demand, public capex and reform compounding, even as external buffers are prioritised. "The Economic Survey 2025-26 places India’s medium-term growth potential at 7%, noting that while investment has lagged in recent years, a gradual firming of investment cycle which is now visible through high frequency indicators with improving credit conditions, above-trend capacity utilisation, and sustained strength in capital goods activity."

Agriculture and allied activities continue to play a pivotal role in India’s growth story, contributing nearly one-fifth of national income at current prices while employing 46.1% of the workforce, the Economic Survey for FY26 said on Thursday. The survey underlined that strengthening farm-sector performance remains critical for inclusive growth and food security, given the sector’s outsized role in employment.