Oil prices rise amid US pressure on Russia, trade deal confidence

Crude oil reached a five-week high on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Russia with new sanctions and tariffs unless it ended the Ukraine conflict within 10 days. In addition, speculation surrounding fresh U.S. trade agreements ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline provided further bullish support for oil.

On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed over $69 per barrel, and Brent above $72 per barrel, hitting their highest levels since June.

According to Kotak Securities, "Today, oil prices are holding above $69/bbl, supported by continued geopolitical tensions and increased U.S. pressure on Russia. However, traders may remain cautious ahead of the Energy Information Administration's inventory report, key U.S. macroeconomic data, and the FOMC statement later in the day. API estimated a 1.5 mb build in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending July 25."

Furthermore, market sentiment improved due to renewed optimism about the extension of the U.S.-China trade truce. This followed a trade agreement reached between the U.S. and the European Union, helping to prevent a potential trade war between two of the world’s largest economic partners.

The report also noted that WTI crude oil prices rose 4% on Tuesday to $69.8/bbl after President Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to show progress in ceasefire talks over Ukraine. He warned of tariffs, and potential secondary sanctions could be imposed if a ceasefire isn't reached within 10 days, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

Still, with the dollar strengthening, there could be some resistance to further price gains. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session. Crude oil is currently supported at $68–67.30, and resistance is at $69.20–69.85 in today’s session. In INR, crude oil has support at ₹5,920-5,840, while resistance is at ₹6,085-6,140," said Rahul Kalantri, VP-commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.