Sugar industry allays deficit fear, says India will have sugar stocks to meet upcoming festival season demand

Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) and the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) have jointly stated that the country will not face shortage of sugar during the upcoming festival season.

In a statement, ISMA and NFCSF said India holds a healthy closing buffer of around 35 lakh tonnes projected through the end of September 2026, which backed by early October output, the precautionary 10-lakh-tonne duty-free import allowance under TRQ (with ~8 lakh tonnes already allocated), and the government's additional 2-lakh-tonne raw sugar import window alongside an additional 3 to 3.5 lakh tonnes supplies by refiners to hit domestic market by mid-October will provide more than sufficient sugar inventory cushion.

The associations said India’s domestic sugar availability remains structurally sound, highly resilient, and fully equipped to satisfy every pocket of demand during the upcoming festive season. “Through our coordinated efforts with the government of India, the sugar ecosystem has successfully stabilized supplies, guided ex-mill prices to cool by nearly 30% from peak, and firmly dismantled unwarranted scarcity narratives across the domestic trade”, the joint statement said.

The associations pointed out that for the vast majority of the 2025–26 season, mills have realized prices well below the normative cost of production.

“The brief surge to ₹49–₹50 per kg witnessed in the third week of August applied strictly to an isolated, fractional volume of only 2 to 3 lakh tonnes, which in no way reflected season-wide economics or windfall gains. Transparent quota releases and prompt regulatory liquidations have already brought ex-mill prices down by 30%, and we are seeing this correction actively filter down to retail shelves to protect consumers”, the statement said.

According to the associations, for the 2025–26 season, India’s net domestic sugar production stands at approximately 279 lakh tonnes—achieved from gross output of ~309 lakh tonnes after a planned diversion of 30 lakh tonnes toward our green energy ethanol commitments—comfortably covering our normative national consumption of 280 to 285 lakh tonnes.

“Above all, the industry has honored its commitments to the farming community by disbursing nearly Rs 1.10 lakh crore—representing approximately 97% of total cane dues—keeping cane arrears near historic lows. We urge all market participants and the public to disregard unfounded deficit rumors, as ISMA and NFCSF remain steadfast in delivering an orderly, accessible, and well-supplied market throughout the festival season at reasonable prices as retail prices have cooled down to around Rs. 62 per kg i.e. by almost 5% from its peak and is expected to further go downwards”, the statement said.