Trade deficit at 4-month low; industry leaders upbeat on India's export momentum

The goods trade deficit dropped to a 4-month low of $24.5 billion in November 2025, as compared to October’s trade deficit of $42 billion, primarily due to a collapse of gold and silver imports by 73% and 60% month-on-month, respectively, the data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows.

However, there was also a broad-based improvement in exports to $38 billion, with a month-on-month surge of 11%, with exports to both the US and the rest of the world rising 11% MoM as well. “While exports to US have been flat YoY post-tariffs (Sep-Nov), exports to the likes of Spain (122% YoY), China (56%), Vietnam (26%), HK (18%) and Brazil (10%), among others, have been extremely strong, indicating both export diversification as well as some transshipment,” Emkay said in its analysis of the data.

The US export growth has likely been led by tariff-free sectors like electronics and pharma. Emkay said the tariff-hit sectors have performed better-than-expected, possibly due to new markets - gems & jewellery and textiles have flat growth for FY26TD, while Marine Products has seen 15%+ growth on the back of higher shipments to China.

Separately, services surplus rose to $18 billion in November, but Oct was revised down heavily: net services export growth remains healthy for FY26TD at 15%. “With trade data being volatile over the past few months, it has been difficult to catch the trend, and so we watch for signs of a structural diversification in India’s export destinations to offset the US tariff hit,” the brokerage said, while maintaining FY26E CAD/GDP at 1.4%.

India’s merchandise exports surged 19.4% year-on-year, rising from $31.94 billion in November 2024 to $38.13 billion in November 2025. Similarly, services exports grew 11.68%, increasing from $32.11 billion to $35.86 billion over the same period. “The key drivers of merchandise export growth in November 2025 included iron ore (70%), cashew (57%), oil meals (40%), electronic goods (38%), and coffee (34%), among others. Despite global headwinds, India registered positive export growth with 14 out of its 20 major trading partners, reflecting increasing diversification and resilience in external trade,” said Rajeev Juneja, President, PHDCCI.

Ranjeet Mehta, CEO & Secretary General, PHDCCI, said that India’s exports are expected to continue on a resilient growth trajectory, supported by sustained government efforts to diversify export markets and enhance global competitiveness. He noted that the government’s Export Promotion Mission (EPM) and deeper engagement across regions, including the US, EU, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and Asia-Pacific, will play a pivotal role in propelling India’s export growth.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said: “With the increase in the average merchandise trade deficit in October-November 2025, we estimate the current account deficit to widen to $20-24 billion in Q3 FY2026 from US$11-12 billion each in Q3 FY2025 and Q2 FY2026."

India’s total exports (merchandise and services combined) for November 2025 is estimated at $73.99 billion, registering a positive growth of 15.52 per cent vis-à-vis November 2024. Total imports (merchandise and services combined) for November 2025 are estimated at $80.63 billion, registering a negative growth of (-) 0.60 per cent vis-à-vis November 2024.

India’s total exports for April-November 2025 are estimated at $562.13 billion, representing a 5.43% positive growth. Total imports during April-November 2025 are estimated at $651.13 billion, a growth of 5 per cent. The cumulative value of merchandise exports from April to November 2025 was $292.07 billion, compared to $284.60 billion during the Same Period in 2024, representing a positive growth of 2.62%.

The cumulative non-petroleum exports in April-November 2025, valued at $254.08 billion, registered an increase of 5.86% as compared to $240.02 billion in April-November 2024. Major drivers of merchandise exports growth in November 2025 include engineering goods, electronic goods, gems & jewellery, drugs & pharmaceuticals, and petroleum Products. Engineering goods exports increased by 23.76 % from $8.90 billion in November 2024 to $11.01 billion in November 2025. Electronic goods exports increased by 38.96 % from $3.46 billion in November 2024 to $4.81 billion in November 2025. Gems & Jewellery exports increased by 27.80 % from $2.07 billion in November 2024 to $2.64 billion in November 2025.