US-China trade war reshapes global flows: India sees import surge, export rise: GTRI

Latest trade figures from China Customs (June 10) and India’s Commerce Ministry (June 16) reveal how the U.S.-China trade war is reshaping global trade flows. May 2025 data indicates a sharp drop in China’s exports to the U.S. and a noticeable redirection of trade to markets like India, the EU, and ASEAN, according to the Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

"India's import surge in electronics and machinery, much of it from China, and rising exports to the U.S. suggest that global supply chains are adapting quickly. The numbers also signal rising risks for India amid Middle East tensions and a more protectionist trade environment. While China’s overall exports grew modestly by 4.6%, from $302.1 billion in May 2024 to $316.2 billion in May 2025, its exports to the United States plummeted by 34.5%, from $44.0 billion to just $28.8 billion over the same period," writes Ajay Srivastava, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative.

The dramatic decline in China's shipments to the U.S. is being partially offset by increased exports to other markets, including the EU (up 12% to $49.5 billion), ASEAN (up 15% to $58.4 billion), and notably, India (up 12.4% to $11.13 billion). "Countries should watch out for any incidence of export push by dumping," said Srivastava.

India's own trade data also corroborates these trends. Although India's overall merchandise imports dipped slightly by 1.8% year-on-year, from $61.7 billion in May 2024 to $60.6 billion in May 2025, this decline was driven primarily by lower oil and gold imports.

"Stripping out petroleum, gold, and diamonds, India's imports actually rose by 12%, from $36.8 billion to $41.2 billion. This corroborates with GST collection through imports. India's net customs revenue from IGST rose by 72.9%, increasing from ₹24,510 crore in May 2024 to ₹42,370 crore in May 2025. Since petroleum products are outside the GST system, this sharp rise in IGST collections broadly reflects the overall increase in imports," Srivastava added.

Two categories with high import growth stood out: electronics (up 27.5% to $9.1 billion) and machinery and computers (up 22% to $5 billion). GTRI attributes part of this increase to China, as India's combined imports from China and Hong Kong surged by 22.4%, from $9.8 billion to $12 billion.

Meanwhile, India's exports to the United States jumped 17.3% to $8.8 billion, driven in part by higher smartphone shipments.

India's merchandise exports dipped marginally to $38.73 billion during May 2025 as compared to $39.59 billion in May last year. The decline, amid challenging global trade conditions, was cushioned by a 54.1% increase in electronic goods exports, $4.57 billion in May 2025 as compared to $2.97 billion in May 2024, monthly trade data released by the Commerce Ministry shows.