Downside risks to FY26 GDP growth projections of 6.5% persist on tariff concerns: Crisil

Crisil on Tuesday said that downside risks to its GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for 2025-26 persist, on the back of tariff uncertainties.

In an interaction on the ratings round-up for the first half of the current financial year, the agency pointed out that the domestic export-oriented sectors may face challenges due to a combination of factors, including the direct impact of U.S. tariff imposition and the secondary impact from slower global growth and dumping by competing nations.  

According to the agency, some of the key watch-outs in the second half would be the India-U.S. trade deal and free trade agreements with other countries, along with support measures from the government to tariff-impacted sectors.

“We maintain the GDP forecast of 6.5% but the downside risks continue due to uncertainties on the tariff front. Some of the recent ratings upgrades will facilitate global fundraising,” said Somasekhar Cemuri, chief criteria officer, Crisil.  

In its ratings update, Crisil said the upgrade rate, at 14%, was above the 10-year average of 11%. “The upgrades were mainly in the infra-linked and consumption sectors, driven by improvement in business risk profiles. Downgrade rate, at 6.4%, in line with 10-year average of 6.3%,” Crisil said.

“Downgrades were seen in export-oriented sectors facing moderation in demand and liquidity pressure, exacerbated by tariff worries and global economic uncertainty,” it added.  

On the sectoral front, the Crisil H1 FY26 round-up stated that the banking sector maintains robust health, while non-banks are on a steady, calibrated march. “Credit profile of banks remains stable, underpinned by strong capital profiles and controlled NPAs. Bank credit is likely to grow at 11-12% this fiscal, with retail as the primary driver. Growth will pick up in the second half.

Gross NPAs to be range-bound; export-oriented MSME and unsecured retail segments bear watching,” said Crisil. RoA to moderate marginally, but remain well above the long-term average, it added.