Electricity demand expected to grow 4-4.5% in FY26

India's electricity demand is expected to grow by approximately 4-4.5% in FY26, after a muted 1% growth in the first half of the financial year, says ICRA Limited, one of India's premier credit rating agencies.

A strong recovery in the second half of the year is expected to offset the monsoon-related weakness seen in the first half.

 "Following a muted 1% growth in H1FY2026 due to an unfavourable base and an early monsoon, we foresee a robust recovery in H2. As weather patterns normalise and underlying economic activity remains stable, we project full-year electricity demand growth to settle at a healthy 4.0–4.5%,'' said Ankit Jain, Vice President & Co-Group Head - Corporate Ratings at ICRA. The full-year projection, however, trails the GDP growth forecast of 6.5%.

This forecast comes amid recent volatility, with a notable 5% year-on-year decline observed in the first 20 days of October 2025, as per provisional data from the Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO).

On the supply side, coal inventory levels at domestic power plants have moderated but remain comfortable. As of October 10, 2025, coal stocks were sufficient for 14.7 days of requirement, which is notably better than the stock levels witnessed in the corresponding periods of previous years. This reflects sustained improvements in coal supply and logistics management.

A significant highlight of the sector's performance is the robust growth in the renewable energy segment. Driven by a strong project pipeline and consistent policy support, renewable energy generation surged by 24.8% year-on-year during the first five months of FY26 (April-August 2025), said ICRA.