WEF says ongoing structural changes will lead to sluggish global economic growth in 2026

The global economy is preparing for another year of sluggish growth as profound structural disruptions, from trade and technology to resources and international institutions, reshape the landscape. According to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, released on Tuesday, nearly three-quarters (72%) of surveyed chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2026, signalling what the report calls the dawn of a “new economic environment.”

The report highlights the growing divide between advanced and developing economies. While growth in advanced markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, is likely to stay sluggish, emerging regions are set to boost global momentum. South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and East Asia and the Pacific are considered the bright spots, with one in three economists predicting strong or very strong growth.

The consensus on China remains divided—caught between the promise of growth and the chilling prospect of deflation—with 56% expecting moderate growth amid persistent deflationary pressures. In contrast, the report forebodingly states that Europe is bracing for weak expansion, fiscal loosening, and subdued inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces a mixture of weak growth, high inflation, and looser monetary policy. Just over half of respondents (56%) believe that these diverging pathways will continue to widen over the next three years.

The survey findings show that current economic headwinds are not just temporary setbacks. A large majority of chief economists expect long-term disruptions in key areas, including natural resources and energy (78%), technology and innovation (75%), trade and global value chains (63%), and international institutions (63%).

“The contours of a new economic environment are already taking shape, defined by disruption across trade, technology, resources and institutions,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “Leaders must adapt with urgency and collaboration to turn today’s turbulence into tomorrow’s resilience.”

These shifts are most noticeable in trade and debt. Seven in 10 chief economists rate trade disruption as “very high,” with ripple effects likely to extend into other sectors. Debt vulnerabilities are also becoming more prominent. Once mainly linked to emerging markets, the threat of debt is increasingly present in advanced economies, with 80% of surveyed economists expecting debt risks in these economies to worsen in the coming year.

Fiscal vulnerabilities, too, are taking their toll on the economy. In advanced economies, 41% of economists believe budgetary stress is a major deterrent to growth, vis-à-vis just 12% in developing economies.

With global growth weakening and systemic risks rising, the report indicates that policymakers and businesses alike will need to navigate not only cyclical downturns but also a structural reconfiguration of the global economy. The future, the WEF warns, will demand more adaptable leadership, greater cooperation, and resilience amidst ongoing fragmentation.