Can the NSE topple Nasdaq’s hold in global m-cap stakes?

India’s largest stock exchange by turnover and the largest derivates market is about to make its public market debut, and depending on how investors respond, it could end up rewriting the global rankings of listed stock exchanges in the process.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is going public at a valuation that is nearly three times that of the country’s oldest stock exchange, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which is valued at Rs 1.38 lakh crore ($14.45 billion). At the lower end of the price band of Rs 1,700, the NSE is valued at Rs 4.20 lakh crore ($44.04 billion @ 95.54) and Rs 4.42 lakh crore ($46.24 billion @ 95.54), at the upper band.

Knocking on Nasdaq’s door

At its pre-listing valuation, the NSE is currently perched in the seventh place among the world’s largest stock exchanges by market cap, just behind Nasdaq’s $51.43 billion and ahead of CBOE Global Markets. But one thing is clear: the NSE has broken into the Top 10 club of listed global exchanges even before its shares have started trading.

The current gap between the NSE and the Nasdaq is $7.43 billion at the lower end of the band and $5.43 billion, at the upper end, but not an insurmountable target given that the exchange’s debut is an eagerly expected one.

If the NSE’s stock rallies the way many market participants expect, its market cap could climb well past the $51 billion mark that currently separates it from Nasdaq. But the listing-day gain has to be 15% at the higher end of the band for the NSE to push past Nasdaq, which will catapult the exchange into sixth place globally and within striking distance of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) at fifth. Incidentally, it will take 20% listing gain on the upper end of the price band for the NSE to topple the LSE and break into the Top 5.

The NSE, which clocked revenues from operations of Rs 15,760 crore and total revenue of Rs 18,713 in FY26, generated profits of Rs 10,302 crore, with transaction charges accounting for a chunk (78.65%/Rs 13,057 crore) of revenue and it is not surprising that options trades make up for bulk of the transaction charges at 60.22% /(Rs 9,997 crore).

NSE could break Wall Street hold

A strong listing will not only end up creating a win-win for prominent institutional shareholders who've been sitting on decades of gains but will also make a powerful statement globally. For the first time a financial market infrastructure company from India will be breaking into the uppermost tier of global exchanges by value, standing shoulder to shoulder with exchanges that have dominated the global list for decades.

Whether the NSE pips Nasdaq will depend on how the market conditions play out in the days, post listing, which is likely by the end of this month. But the fact that an Indian exchange has broken into the top 10 and is a strong contender to topple a Wall Street giant is a commendable statement of how far and wide the success of India's capital markets has travelled.

The NSE’s stellar global debut will, however, relegate the BSE, India’s and Asia’s oldest exchange, to the 13th position at over $14.45 billion.