The Budget lays emphasis on investments, infrastructure, suvidha to the common man and a furtherance of the simplification of rules and ease of doing business, says Goenka.
The chief economic advisor said that inflation should remain controlled in India because of clear policy focus on supply-side measures, while enhancing demand.
The veteran of the investment industry argues that this decade will witness an export-led growth. And while IT and pharma would rule the economy, other smaller industries, too, will jostle to rise up.
At its first monetary policy review for 2021, the central bank kept key rates unchanged, while announcing several measures to manage liquidity.
The survey sees GDP contraction at 7.7% for FY21, but says a V-shaped recovery is visible. Consequently, FY22 growth is pegged at 11%.
The cautious easing of the lockdown in several states and the reverse migration of labour will make a return to normal economic activity a difficult task.
While directly mum on inflation and growth, the RBI’s latest monetary policy report warns that Covid-19 would impact economic activity in India through lockdowns and slowing global trade and growth.
Notwithstanding headline inflation being at a five-year high of 7.4%, Nomura expects the RBI to extend its pause; but the next policy move is still likely to be a rate cut in Q2 to boost growth.
The Asian Development Bank cites the credit crunch and a rise in risk aversion in financial markets caused by the IL&FS crisis for the revision.
The second quarter GDP numbers, the lowest in six years, prove that the economy has still not bottomed out.
