IN EARLY MARCH, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its seasonal forecast from March to May 2003. According to the forecast, India will experience a scorching summer this year, and most parts of North, East and Central India will have above-normal maximum temperatures. There is also a probability of heatwaves (periods of abnormally high temperatures) over parts of Northwest and Central India.

“For the March to June period, all-India electricity demand is expected to grow 8.5-11.5%, driven by signs of improved economic activity and unusual rise in temperature,” another report by S&P Global analysis says.

It’s not only India. As per the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), 2023 will be a “triple-dip La Niña” year, with the potential for widespread warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures during spring and summer.

These predictions also raise concerns regarding the availability of power, as load-shedding is a common phenomenon in most parts of the country during summer. But this time around, things are different. Recovering from the effects of Covid-19, the economy is powering back and industrial units are peaking production. Industries accounted for 41% electricity consumption in India in 2021, followed by homes (26%), the farm sector (18%), commercial (8%) and others (6%). Though the Centre says it is preparing to meet the crisis, can India escape the wrath of a likely harsh summer is a reality that will be addressed in the coming weeks.

To get a perspective, peak demand (highest energy consumption in a single day) was about 187 gigawatt (GW) in October, 188 GW in November and 206 GW in December 2022. While the demand was met, companies could supply only around 210 GW in January 2023, against a demand of 212 GW. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimates the peak electricity demand to further rise to 229 GW during April 2023, when electricity demand is normally highest during a year. The demand tapers off by early June as the monsoon season picks up from the southern parts and covers the whole country over the next 3-4 months. Though peak demand in April 2022 was only around 215.88 GW, many parts of the country had to face severe load shedding, due to domestic coal shortage, record prices of imported coal and transmission system failures, according to sources.

power sector dues

Bracing Up for A Scorching Summer & A Power Crisis