Russian oil could have touched 52% of India's crude-oil imports in July, estimates GTRI
Russia’s share of India’s crude imports is estimated to have crossed 50% in July, intensifying the stakes for New Delhi as Washington threatens steeper tariffs over purchases of Russian energy.
The estimates have been extrapolated on the basis of the detailed country-wise trade data for June 2026. GTRI said the numbers will be updated when detailed country- and product-wise trade data for July becomes available.
India’s dependence on Russian oil becomes significant in the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s decision to levy up to 100% additional tariffs on products originating from countries that are major purchasers of Russian oil.
In June, India imported $14.8 billion of crude oil globally, including $7.2 billion from Russia, bringing Russia’s share to 48.6%. “For July, the government has disclosed that India’s total imports from Russia reached $8.9 billion but has not provided the value of crude oil within that figure. In June, crude accounted for 82% of India’s total imports from Russia. Applying the same ratio to July puts India’s Russian crude imports at approximately $7.3 billion”, says Ajay Srivastava, founder, GTRI.
According to him, India’s total crude imports for July also had to be estimated because the government has reported only the combined value of crude oil and petroleum-product imports. In June, crude represented 76.3% of this combined category. Applying that ratio to July suggests that India imported about $14 billion of crude globally. On this basis, Russia supplied an estimated $7.3 billion of India’s total crude imports of $14 billion—equivalent to approximately 52%, the GTRI analysis suggests.
Russia’s share of India’s crude imports has increased rapidly—from about 15% in 2022 to 30.3% in FY2025–26, 48.6% in June 2026 and going by the GTRI estimates, 52% in July. Over the same period, the combined share of Gulf suppliers fell from more than 55% in 2022 to below 30% in June 2026. The Iran war and related supply-chain disruptions accelerated this change, making Russian crude even more important to India’s energy security.
India could face additional U.S. tariffs of up to 100% if the proposed Russia sanctions legislation is approved by the US Congress and applied to countries that continue purchasing Russian energy.
Srivastava said American tariff threats should not determine India’s energy policy. Differences with Washington should be addressed through firm negotiations, not unilateral concessions that raise India’s energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy.