As Israel-US and Iran war disrupts the freight movement across the Middle East, six Indian farm produce categories which cumulatively accounted for close to $1 billion in exports in 2025 are facing the highest risk of adverse impact, says an analysis of India’s trade data by Delhi based Global Trade Research Institute. These products, predominantly exported to the region, include sheep and goat meat (98.9% of Indian exports are to the Gulf region), fresh or chilled beef (97.4%), copra or dried coconut kernel (83.9%), beer (81.0%), bananas and plantains (79.6%), and nutmeg, mace and cardamom (70.5%).

The Gulf has been a natural destination due to its geographic proximity and large Indian diaspora. But the ongoing conflict in the region, along with disruptions to shipping routes and rising insurance costs, is now creating uncertainty for exporters and could directly affect farmers and food processors across several Indian states. In 2025 alone, India exported nearly $11.8 billion worth of agricultural and food products to the region, accounting for more than one-fifth of the country’s total agri exports.

Tea, tobacco products and dairy fats top in high risk category

Another set of products which are in the high risk category with at least 40% of their global exports going to the Gulf region are butter and dairy fats, soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, coconut and palm kernel oil, manufactured tobacco products, other fresh vegetables, cheese and curd, other fresh fruits, tea, sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil and cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos. Of this, tea ($ 410 million), tobacco products ($ 215 million) and butter and diary fats ($ 203 million) are the top three products in terms of export revenue.

The think tank has kept rice in the medium risk category as only 36.7 percent of India’s global exports are to the affected regions. India’s export of rice to the Gulf region was worth $ 4.4 billion in 2025 making it the most valuable commodity exported to Gulf region from the country.

“If instability around the Strait of Hormuz persists, the impact could ripple through India’s agricultural economy, highlighting the need for exporters to diversify markets and reduce excessive dependence on a single region”, says Ajay Srivastava, founder, GTRI.

The products, where dependence on Gulf region as an export destination is relatively limited include coffee (17.7%), bread, biscuits and bakery products (17.7%), raw tobacco (16.9%), other food preparations (16.9%), sugar (16.4%), and crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns (4.3%). However instability around the Strait of Hormuz can make India’s entire exports to Western countries expensive because of factors like longer alternate routes, increase in freight and insurance charges, etc.