India-Japan trade seen hitting $50 billion by 2030 from $27.47 billion in FY26: ASSOCHAM

India-Japan bilateral trade could rise to $50 billion by 2030, up from $27.47 billion in FY26, as expanding economic ties, investment commitments and deeper business engagement strengthen the relationship between the two countries, according to an ASSOCHAM report released in Tokyo.

The report, titled “India-Japan @75: From Enduring Friendship to Strategic Business Partnership”, was released by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal during a roundtable on startups in Tokyo.

India’s Ambassador to Japan Nagma Mohamed Mallick, ASSOCHAM president Nirmal Kumar Minda and secretary general Saurabh Sanyal were also present at the launch.

India-Japan trade grows 33% in five years

Bilateral merchandise trade between India and Japan has increased from $20.58 billion in FY21 to $27.47 billion in FY26, marking a 33% rise over the period. The growth was higher than India’s trade expansion with the US at 17.8%, the European Union at 19.1% and China at 31.1%, the report said.

Japan is currently India’s fifth-largest investor and has committed JPY 10 trillion in private investment over the next decade, underscoring the growing role of Japanese capital in India’s economic expansion. The report said recent high-level exchanges, bilateral trade developments and investment announcements are expected to provide further momentum to commercial ties.

Japan’s investment, India’s manufacturing base seen as key drivers

ASSOCHAM said the two economies have complementary strengths, with India offering a large and expanding market, a young workforce and a growing manufacturing base, while Japan brings advanced technology, capital and industrial expertise.

However, India’s share of Japan’s global imports remains below 1%, pointing to significant headroom for greater market penetration and higher-value exports, according to Sanyal.

Semiconductors, AI and critical minerals emerge as new focus areas

The trade relationship is also expanding beyond traditional industrial sectors into semiconductors, artificial intelligence, digital technologies, critical minerals and resilient supply chains. Minda suggested that Japan could consider establishing more research and development and innovation centres, global capability centres and engineering partnerships with Indian academia.

ASSOCHAM said stronger business engagement and the ease of doing business could help convert the complementarities between the two economies into sustained economic momentum and support the $50-billion bilateral trade ambition by 2030.