India's merchandise exports to touch $ 131.2 billion in July-Sep 26 quarter, forecasts Exim Bank

India is likely to export $ 131.2 billion worth of goods, registering a 17.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth during the July-September quarter of this year, a forecast by Export-Import Bank of India indicates.

 The growth will be led by a 20.3% growth in non-oil exports which is expected to touch $ 113.8 billion during Q2 FY27, the exim bank estimates. The non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected at $ 105.8 billion, a y-o-y growth of 20.5% during the same quarter.

According to the Bank, the growth in exports, despite global uncertainties, could be as a result of increasing geographical diversification of Indian exports along with favourable prospects arising from recent trade agreements with major trading partners, supported by buoyant demand in partner countries. India’s positive export outlook is expected to be driven by sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and exchange rate movements. However, there are downside risks emanating from geopolitical conflicts, and volatility in international commodity markets, the Bank states.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model.

The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

 The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the third quarter of FY 2027 (i.e., October-December 2026) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2026.