After growing by 6.2% year-on-year (YoY) in the October–December 2024 quarter, India's real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated to 7.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the financial year 2024-25 (January-March), according to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The current GDP growth numbers have beaten estimates by several economists, who projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.3% to 6.7% YoY in Q4.

"In Q4 of FY 2024-25, Real GDP and Nominal GDP have been estimated to grow by 7.4% and 10.8% respectively," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said today.

The GDP growth estimates, however, are in line with those projected by US financial giant JP Morgan, which projected India’s Q4 GDP growth at 7.5% YoY, with Gross Value Added (GVA) expected to rise by 6.7%, a significant improvement from 6.2% in the preceding quarter.

India’s GDP growth rate for Q3 FY25 was recorded at 6.2%, while the growth plunged to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2 FY25. The Q1 FY25 GDP growth was recorded at 6.7%.

The NSO data show that the country's real GDP growth for the full year that ended on March 31, 2025, is estimated at 6.5%, while the nominal GDP growth witnessed a growth rate of 9.8% in FY 2024-25.

The ‘construction’ sector is estimated to record a growth rate of 9.4% in FY 2024-25, followed by an 8.9% growth rate in the ‘public administration, defence & other services’ sector and a 7.2% growth rate in the ‘financial, real estate & professional services’ sector.

During Q4 of FY 2024-25, the construction sector witnessed a 10.8% growth rate, followed by an 8.7% growth rate in the public administration, defence & other services sector and a 7.8% growth rate in the financial, real estate & professional services sector, the NSO observed.

The primary sector has seen a 4.4% growth rate compared to the 2.7% growth rate observed in the previous financial year. During Q4, FY 2024-25, this sector observed a 5.0% growth rate compared to the 0.8% growth rate in Q4 of the previous financial year.

Notably, SBI Research on May 21 forecast India’s GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY25 at 6.4–6.5%, citing a slight moderation in economic activity. The full-year FY25 GDP was projected to grow at 6.3%, assuming no significant revisions to the Q1-Q3 data. Economists at global news agency Reuters also pegged the Q4 GDP growth to be around 6.7%.

On Wednesday, at the ongoing CII summit, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran had struck a confident tone, noting that a confluence of positive factors, including lower energy prices, an accommodative monetary stance, and expectations of a favourable monsoon, will help India sustain a GDP growth rate of 6.3% to 6.8% over the long term.