‘For us dumber investors…’: Edelweiss’s Radhika Gupta gives sobering message to investors riding Trump-China, India-Pak ceasefire market rally

Monday was a day of jubilation when it came to the equity markets. Not just globally, but in India too, the benchmark indices surged more than 3.5%—the sharpest single-day rally in more than four years. The Sensex and Nifty50 rebounded spectacularly, adding nearly ₹16 lakh crore to investor wealth and pushing India’s market capitalisation past the $5 trillion mark once again.

This dramatic upsurge in investor sentiment and optimism came in the wake of favourable global developments, including a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan. However, the euphoria notwithstanding, Edelweiss Mutual Fund CEO and market maven, Radhika Gupta issued a sober reminder about the perils of trying to time the market.

Taking to the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Gupta reflected at length on the nature of the market and how the sudden shift in its mood, prompts the investor to always be on his toes.

“Could you predict last week's fall? Today's massive rise? A geopolitical outcome? A trade deal?” she wrote, pointing to the inherent difficulty in forecasting such events.

Her message was clear: while some advocate exiting and re-entering the market tactically, most investors are better off staying the course.

“Days like this remind you how difficult market timing—both entry, exit and re-entry—for individuals and fund managers are. A large part of a year's returns come from a few critical days, and those are hard to predict,” she noted.

Gupta’s commentary on the unsteadiness of the market and the futility to time it has indeed come as a stark reminder to long-term investors, many of whom have been grappling with heightened volatility as the global order becomes more and more uncertain.

Gupta offers a simple advice in that regard: “For us ‘dumber’ investors, staying invested and staying patient is the easier and more effective thing to do.”  In other words, what Gupta is advocating is, notwithstanding the terrible mood swings of the equity markets, the only solution a patient investor has is to stay invested for the long-term.