The Indian stock market is bracing for a turbulent start to the week, with benchmark indices likely to open sharply lower amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and a broad sell-off across global markets. 

The GIFT Nifty futures were quoting at 25,158, down 183 points as of 8:35 am, signalling a gap-down opening for domestic equities. 

Geopolitical turmoil deepens 

Over the weekend, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top officials were reportedly killed in a joint military operation by the US and Israel. The situation intensified further after US President Donald Trump vowed retaliation following the deaths of American servicemen in Iranian counterstrikes, according to agency reports. 

The fresh escalation has triggered fears of a prolonged conflict in a region critical to global energy supplies, weighing heavily on investor sentiment worldwide. 

Asian markets tumble 

Asian equities mirrored the global risk-off mood in early Monday trade. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged as much as 2.7% while South Korea’s Kospi dropped up to 2.43%. 

US equity futures also reflected the nervousness. On Sunday, futures linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1% following reports of the coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran. 

During the Asia session, Dow futures were down 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.54%, indicating sustained global weakness. 

Oil prices surge on supply fears 

The most dramatic reaction was seen in energy markets, where crude oil prices spiked sharply on concerns of supply disruptions from the Middle East. 

Brent crude futures surged as much as 13.76% to $82.37 per barrel — the highest level since January 2025 — amid fears that exports from Iran and neighbouring producers could be curtailed. 

Attacks across the region, including incidents involving two vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened concerns over the security of oil shipments. The narrow waterway is a critical transit route for a significant share of global crude trade. 

Traders are increasingly betting that oil flows from Iran and other key Middle Eastern producers could slow or even come to a halt if hostilities persist. Energy experts warn that prolonged disruptions could push crude and fuel prices even higher in the coming weeks. 

WTI and Brent rally sharply 

In early Monday trade, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was hovering around $72 per barrel, up roughly 7.3% from Friday’s closing levels of about $67, according to data from CME Group. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading near $78.55 per barrel, up 7.8% from Friday’s level of $72.87, which had already marked a seven-month high, as per data compiled by FactSet. 

Inflation concerns resurface 

A sustained rise in crude oil prices could add to global inflationary pressures. Higher energy costs typically translate into increased fuel prices at the pump and elevated transportation and logistics expenses, eventually pushing up grocery and consumer goods prices. 

This comes at a time when many economies are already grappling with elevated inflation and fragile growth conditions, amplifying concerns about stagflationary risks. 

Safe-haven buying in precious metals 

Amid the heightened uncertainty, investors flocked to traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver futures were trading over 1% higher in early deals, reflecting risk aversion and a shift away from equities.