90%+ of tech service providers pitch similar AI capabilities; $2.2 trillion market at stake by 2030: BCG

More than 90% of technology service providers are pitching similar artificial intelligence capabilities, making technology-led differentiation increasingly difficult in a rapidly expanding market, according to a new analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The consulting firm’s report, Now That (almost) Everyone Has AI, finds a growing “sea of sameness” around AI propositions, even as enterprises become more focused on the business outcomes these technologies can deliver.

BCG analysed more than 40 providers across five archetypes and over 100 positioning claims, besides conducting interviews with more than 70 CXOs across industries. The study found that more than 100 AI-related keywords converge into just 23 distinct plays, highlighting how closely providers are clustering around similar AI narratives.

AI costs fall 60x in under two years

AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, with the cost of GPT-4-class inference falling approximately 60 times in less than two years. At the same time, a major frontier model is now being launched roughly every six weeks, according to BCG.

“Almost everyone has AI—that is the good news. Almost all service providers sound the same - that is not,” said Rajiv Gupta, Managing Director & Senior Partner, BCG. He said clients are increasingly seeking outcomes, ownership, integration and governance, rather than simply access to AI capabilities.

Enterprise buyers focus on measurable outcomes

Across BCG’s 70-plus CXO interviews, six priorities repeatedly emerged: clear business value linked to P&L lines, context specificity, integration with existing technology stacks, data sovereignty and governance, in-house control and flexibility, and proof of value backed by outcome ownership.

The analysis identified relatively less crowded areas including end-to-end accountability, outcome-based pricing and agentic managed services.

$2.2 trillion technology services market by 2030

The shift is also changing the economics of traditional technology services models based on seats, licences, headcount and hours. BCG said that for every $1 enterprises spend on software, roughly $6 is spent running it.

The report puts the technology services market at $2.2 trillion by 2030, while the BPO market is estimated at $435 billion in 2026. BCG sees scope for providers to move towards an “operator” model, where commercial value is linked to work performed and outcomes delivered.

Established providers could leverage long-standing client relationships, domain knowledge, process intelligence and operational expertise to build AI-led institutional assets, the report said. BCG recommends starting with one process and one client with a measurable outcome before scaling the model.

A large share of enterprise AI contracts signed during the 2023-24 hype cycle are also due for renewal by late 2026, creating a potential reallocation point for enterprise technology spending, BCG said.