India loses $1 trillion annually as opportunity cost due to high disease burden: Study

The opportunity cost of India’s high disease burden is about $1 trillion annually, says a new report released by global consultancy Bain & Company and NATHEALTH, a national platform of healthcare and diagnostic service providers, medical technology players, health insurers and other stakeholders.

The report titled ‘Swasth Bharat se Viksit Bharat’ says to become a $30–$40 trillion economy by 2047, India must fully harness its demographic dividend for which population health needs to be considered as a core input to productivity, human capital formation, and sustained economic growth.

“Over the past decades, India has implemented multiple central- and state-level reforms that have strengthened financial protection, expanded system capacity, and improved select population health outcomes. Yet a persistently high disease burden continues to suppress workforce participation and productivity, resulting in an estimated $1 trillion annual opportunity cost”, the report said.

Observing that India’s health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) has already increased from approximately 50 to 61 years since 1990, the report said that achieving an additional 10-year gain—to a HALE of 70 by 2047—could unlock a fivefold expansion in GDP per capita, increasing it from approximately $2,800 to $14,100. This jump could contribute 70% of the Viksit Bharat aspiration of reaching $18,000 to $ 20,000 GDP per capita. It is estimated that once HALE exceeds approximately 57 years, GDP per capita growth accelerates materially. Each additional year of HALE is associated with approximately 7.5% higher GDP per capita, the report points out.

According to the report, while the National Health Policy 2017 catalyzed progress across life expectancy, immunization, sanitation, and select disease-control outcomes, critical targets on mortality, non-communicable disease outcomes, financing, infrastructure, and system integration remain unmet. “Reaching the next frontier will require doubling health investment from approximately 3%–4% of GDP to 6%–7%, in line with global peers. In addition, India must institutionalize and integrate governance models. Financing, service delivery, workforce development, digital infrastructure, procurement, and performance management should align under a single accountable framework”, the report suggests.

“Health must be viewed not as a cost, but as a long-term investment in India’s economic future,” said Ameera Shah, President, NATHEALTH and Promoter & Executive Chairperson, Metropolis Healthcare. “While India has made meaningful progress in expanding access and improving outcomes over the past decade, the next phase will require a step-change in both investment and execution. Bridging the current investment gap, strengthening healthcare infrastructure and workforce capacity, and enabling more coordinated, outcome-driven policy implementation will be essential. With the right policy support and industry collaboration, India can accelerate progress toward equitable, high-quality healthcare for its population. NATHEALTH can play a vital role in bridging this gap.”

The report identifies prevention-embedded universal health coverage, healthcare capacity expansion, digital health adoption, and behavior-shaping policy levers as critical priorities for the next phase of progress.