India set to power 6% of global trade growth, closing in on US and China, report says

India will drive 6% of global trade growth, securing third place worldwide behind US and China, the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade released by logistics major DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business says.

In the next five years, India is anticipated to retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%. Additionally, India may also deliver 6% of the world’s trade growth, behind China (12%) and the United States (10%), the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 said.

The report suggests that Asia’s trade outlook remains positive and is forecast to grow faster over the next five years compared to the preceding decade. India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are expected lead this Asian growth.

"As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it's clear how trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” said Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express. “However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognising the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the global business environment. As businesses diversify supply chains, it is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in seeking out new routes to growth.”

Commenting on India’s growing role in global trade, R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express said, “The Trade Atlas underlines India's rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the east and west. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy's general volatility. Furthermore, South Asia is expected to grow its trade volume faster than any other region between 2024 and 2029, providing an excellent opportunity for its economies and businesses to improve their global stature."

DHL Trade Atlas 2025 also indicates that trade has not become more regionalized overall. “In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers, compared to just over 4,500 kilometers in 2000. This long – run trend can be attributed to Europe and North America increasingly trading with Asia, as “Factory Asia” becomes central to global production networks”, the report said.