WEF chief economists see global economy more resilient, warn of AI, debt, and trade risks
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The global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains clouded by significant risks stemming from elevated asset prices, mounting debt, geoeconomic fragmentation, and the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook.
While a majority of surveyed chief economists continue to brace for a slowdown, sentiment has improved compared with late last year. About 53% of respondents now expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, down sharply from 72% who held that view in September 2025, indicating growing confidence in the economy’s relative resilience.
“The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum. She added that governments and businesses will need to navigate near-term uncertainty with agility while continuing to invest in long-term growth fundamentals.
Asset valuations under pressure
Asset prices, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence, remain a key concern. A slim majority of economists (52%) expect AI-related US stocks to decline over the next year while 40% anticipate further gains. However, should valuations fall sharply, nearly three-quarters of respondents believe the impact would spill over into the broader global economy.
January 2026
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Outlooks for other assets are more pessimistic. About 62% of chief economists expect cryptocurrencies to decline further following recent market volatility, while 54% believe gold prices have peaked after strong rallies.
Despite valuation concerns, expectations for AI-driven productivity gains remain strong. Nearly four in five economists foresee productivity improvements within two years in both the US and China. The information technology sector is expected to benefit first, with close to three-quarters anticipating near-term gains. Financial services, supply chains, healthcare, engineering and retail are also seen as fast adopters. Larger firms are likely to benefit earlier, with 77% expecting companies employing more than 1,000 people to see meaningful productivity gains within two years.
On employment, economists expect modest job losses over the next two years due to AI adoption. Over a longer horizon, views diverge: 57% anticipate net job losses over the next decade while 32% expect employment gains as new roles emerge.
Debt pressures intensify
High debt levels are emerging as a central challenge for policymakers amid rising spending demands. Defence spending is almost universally expected to rise, with 97% of economists predicting increases in advanced economies and 74% in emerging markets. Spending on digital infrastructure and energy is also expected to grow while outlays on environmental protection are forecast to decline in both advanced and emerging economies.
Opinions are divided on the likelihood of sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, while 47% see such crises as likely in emerging markets over the next year. A large majority expect governments to rely on higher inflation and tax increases to manage debt burdens. More than half of respondents anticipate debt restructuring or defaults in emerging markets over the next five years.
Trade and growth outlooks
Global trade and investment patterns are increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition. Most economists expect US-China tariffs to remain stable, though restrictions on technology exports and critical minerals are likely to persist or intensify. Bilateral and regional trade agreements are expected to expand while Chinese exports to non-US markets are projected to rise further.
Regionally, South Asia stands out as the strongest growth performer, driven by India. East Asia and the Pacific, as well as the Middle East and North Africa, are expected to post moderate to strong growth. The US outlook has improved, though strong growth remains unlikely. China faces mixed prospects while Europe continues to confront the weakest growth outlook among major regions.