India-U.S. economic relationship is not skewed against the U.S. as Trump tariff suggests, it is advantage U.S

As U.S. President Donald Trump continues his rant against India’s goods exports, tariff policies and the ‘resultant’ trade deficit the U.S suffers, an analysis done by Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI) suggests that the overall economic engagement, including bilateral trade, between the two countries, is in the U.S.’s favour.

“When the full balance sheet is considered, the U.S. actually earns far more from India than India does from America,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, says.

According to GTRI’s calculation, once all commercial earnings are counted, America runs a healthy $35–40 billion surplus with India, as compared to the $45 billion trade deficit the U.S. has with India.

Srivastava says the estimates go by the following logic: American technology giants such as Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft take home $15–20 billion annually from India’s digital economy; McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and a hundred other U.S. firms earn over $15 billion from Indian operations.

Wall Street banks and global consultancies earn $10–15 billion in fees; Global Capability Centres of Walmart, IBM, Dell, and others generate another $15–20 billion booked in the U.S.; and billions more flow through pharmaceutical patents, Hollywood movies, streaming subscriptions, and defence contracts. Additionally, Indian students in U.S. universities contribute over $25 billion annually to tuition and local communities.

He concludes that far from being shortchanged, it is the U.S. that profits handsomely from its economic engagement with India.

On tariffs, too, Trump’s charge misses the mark, Srivastava says. Pointing out to Trump’s claim that India has offered zero-tariff access to almost all goods originating from the U.S. during the ongoing trade negotiations, he says that since these cover more than 95% of U.S. exports to India, Washington would enjoy virtually tariff-free access to the Indian market — hardly the one-sided equation Trump portrays.

On Trump’s complaint about India buying Russian oil, Srivastava said India’s oil and defence purchases are driven by its sovereign right to act in its own national interest.

During the week, Trump stated that the U.S. is not doing much business with India due to the high tariffs imposed on imports of goods from that country; however, India is doing business with the U.S. because of the historic low tariffs the U.S. used to charge India. Earlier, he wrote on the social media platform Truth Social that the India-U.S. trade relationship has been one-sided for many decades.

“The reason is that India has charged us, until now, such high tariffs, the most of any country, that our businesses are unable to sell into India. It has been a totally one-sided disaster! Also, India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the U.S. They have now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago. Just some simple facts for people to ponder!!!,” Trump had said in a post on Truth Social.

GTRI analysis was in response to this accusation.