India-US trade deal ‘very, very close’, says US Deputy Assistant Secretary Bethany Poulos Morrison; cites $500 billion trade goal

The United States and India are on the verge of concluding a landmark bilateral trade agreement, according to a senior US official, as both sides intensify negotiations ahead of a key tariff deadline next month.

Addressing an event at Capitol Hill hosted by the Foundation for India and Indian Diaspora Studies (FIIDS), US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Bethany Poulos Morrison said Washington and New Delhi were making rapid progress towards a mutually beneficial trade arrangement and a broader goal of significantly expanding bilateral commerce.

Race against July 24 tariff deadline intensifies

“We're not measuring the relationship by meetings. We're measuring it by results,” Morrison said, referring to the trade negotiations launched after the understanding reached between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump earlier this year.

“When we looked at trade in February 2026, we announced the intention to finally conclude the historic trade deal. We are very, very close,” she said.

Morrison added that the proposed agreement would open India's 1.4 billion-strong market to American goods “on terms that are reciprocal and mutually beneficial”.

Her remarks came as US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is in India for discussions with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal aimed at advancing the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

Mission 500: US aims to double bilateral trade by 2030

“The administration is driving toward the goal of Mission 500 — the goal of achieving US$500 billion in trade by 2030 — with a real sense of urgency,” Morrison said.

The United States remained India's second-largest trading partner in FY26. India's exports to the US rose 0.92% to US$87.3 billion during the fiscal year, while imports increased 15.95% to US$52.9 billion. India's trade surplus with the US narrowed to US$34.4 billion from US$40.89 billion in the previous year.

Highlighting growing economic engagement, Morrison said Indian companies are also increasing investments in the US.

“At the recent SelectUSA Investment Summit, we saw US$20 billion in new investment commitments from India, including US$1.1 billion in immediate investment,” she said, describing it as the largest announcement in the history of the investment promotion programme.

Tariff reset forces rethink of February trade framework

Trade negotiations have gained urgency as both countries seek to conclude an interim pact before July 24, when Washington's temporary 10% tariff on imports from trading partners is scheduled to expire.

The two sides formally launched BTA negotiations on February 13, 2025, and subsequently agreed on a framework covering tariff reductions and market access commitments. However, changes in US tariff policy later forced both countries to revisit several elements of the proposed arrangement.

Under the February framework, India had expected preferential tariff treatment compared with competing exporters such as Vietnam and other ASEAN economies. Subsequent policy changes in Washington altered that landscape, prompting fresh negotiations on tariff commitments and market access provisions.

Earlier this month, Goyal said India and the US were moving towards closing all outstanding issues and could finalise the first phase of the agreement by the middle of next month.

Morrison also pointed to expanding cooperation beyond trade. “The US-India hydrocarbon trade has expanded significantly since 2025, reaching US$14.4 billion to date,” she said, adding that both countries are exploring broader civil nuclear cooperation under the recently enacted Shanti Act.

She further noted that more than 330,000 Indian students are currently enrolled in US educational institutions, contributing over US$14 billion annually to the American economy and supporting more than 50,000 jobs.