Stock market this week: U.S.-Iran conflict, crude prices, Q4 earnings among key triggers

Snapping a two-week gaining streak, the Indian equity market ended in the red during the week ended April 24, as early momentum faded mid-week amid uncertainties around geopolitical tensions in West Asia, along with continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, declined 2% each, driven by a sharp sell-off in IT stocks, a spike in Brent crude prices, a weakening rupee, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

The shift in sentiment was primarily driven by stalled progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and ongoing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continued to keep supply concerns elevated, said Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money. Brent crude oil prices remained firm throughout the week, trading in the $103–107 range, as disruptions persisted despite the ceasefire extension.

Sentiment was further dampened by sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who withdrew another ₹17,140 crore during the week. The month-to-date trend has remained unchanged for the tenth consecutive month, with FIIs pulling out a substantial ₹56,360 crore from Indian equities so far in April.

On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped in to cushion the market from sharper declines, infusing ₹39,480 crore so far in April, including ₹9,780 crore last week.

Will market volatility continue this week?

Global developments continued to dominate market direction, with ongoing uncertainty around the West Asia crisis and concerns over supply disruptions keeping crude oil prices elevated, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

Brent crude surged nearly 8-10% during the week, crossing the $105 per barrel mark, thereby intensifying concerns around inflation, a widening import bill, and potential pressure on India’s fiscal balance.

He said the upcoming week will remain crucial, with geopolitical developments in West Asia and their impact on crude oil prices continuing to drive sentiment. “Given the prevailing macro uncertainty, elevated crude prices, and persistent global risks, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach.”

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, said the upcoming week carries a dense macro calendar that will materially shape near-term direction. “The U.S. Fed’s rate decision and accompanying commentary will be the key catalyst, as a hawkish stance could prolong pressure on emerging markets via a stronger dollar and sustained FII outflows, while the Bank of Japan’s policy decision adds an additional layer of global liquidity sensitivity.”

Echoing a similar view, Ponmudi of Enrich Money said stability or a decline in oil prices could help ease macro concerns and support risk sentiment, while any escalation or prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may trigger renewed volatility and profit booking. Currency movements and global market trends will also play a crucial role in shaping direction, he said.

While intermittent recoveries may occur, sustained upside will depend on stability in crude prices, easing geopolitical tensions, and a revival in FII inflows, he added.

Key events to watch this week

On the domestic front, the Q4 FY26 earnings season will gather momentum this week, with over 180 companies slated to announce results, including Maruti Suzuki , Eternal , UltraTech Cement , Coal India , Vedanta, Adani Enterprises , and HUL. Among others, Bajaj Housing Finance, Varun Beverages, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv,  Dr. Lal PathLabs, NSDL are also slated to release their Q4 results during the week.

Investors will also react to the earnings report of Reliance Industries , the country’s most valued company, which was released after market hours on Friday. Meanwhile, private lenders IDFC First Bank , Axis Bank , and RBL Bank announced their fourth-quarter results over the weekend.

Management commentary on input cost pressures, demand outlook, and margin sustainability will be closely monitored, said Mishra.

On the macro front, industrial production data for March will be released on April 28, while foreign exchange reserves data is due on May 1. Globally, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be a key event, providing cues on the interest rate trajectory and liquidity conditions, he added.

With volatility expected to remain elevated amid geopolitical developments and the ongoing earnings season, a hedged and stock-specific strategy will be essential until clearer directional cues emerge, Mishra said. He advised traders to remain disciplined, avoid aggressive leverage, and prioritise capital preservation.

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