Akshaya Tritiya 2026: Gold prices surge on geopolitical tensions; should you buy this festive season?

With Akshaya Tritiya around the corner, one of India’s biggest gold-buying festivals, demand for the yellow metal is back in focus. While the occasion traditionally drives purchases, this year households are likely to weigh their buying decisions more carefully amid high prices. How consumers respond will offer key clues on whether festive sentiment can outweigh broader market uncertainties.

Historical data suggests that gold has remained a consistent wealth creator over the past five years, delivering a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of around 25-28% as compared to 11% by the equity benchmark, Nifty. However, with prices hovering near record highs and global volatility persisting, investors are now weighing whether the yellow metal still offers value this season.

According to Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst–Commodities at Axis Securities, gold’s momentum has been particularly strong in the last two years, with gains of nearly 40% and 47% in dollar terms. “Gold has consistently delivered positive returns year-over-year around Akshaya Tritiya, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term investment,” she said.

The year 2026, however, began on a volatile note for global markets. COMEX gold surged to a record high of $5,598 in late January before correcting sharply to $4,098 by March 23, largely due to profit booking and exchange traded flow (ETF) outflows.

She said that geopolitical tensions also played a key role. The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran pushed crude oil prices sharply higher—from around $60 to $115 per barrel in under two months—raising global inflation concerns. This shift led markets to reassess expectations, with investors beginning to price in potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve instead of earlier anticipated rate cuts.

“As a result, Gold’s safe-haven appeal softened, leading to relative underperformance during the peak of the conflict. However, the metal showed resilience, holding its ground as ceasefire talks between the US and Iran helped ease crude oil prices, thereby reducing inflationary pressures,” she added.

Looking ahead, Gaglani expects gold to maintain a positive bias through 2026. “Either a stagflationary environment or lower crude oil prices would support bullion,” she noted, adding that prices could retest the $5,300–$5,500 range over the next year, implying a potential upside of 10–15%. In the domestic market, gold prices are seen reaching ₹1.7 lakh–₹1.85 lakh over the same period.

With Akshaya Tritiya falling on April 19 this year, the festive season is expected to influence buying patterns. Traditionally, the occasion marks a surge in gold purchases, though elevated prices may temper demand.

Senco Gold, Tanishq, Malabar Gold, others announce discounts

Jewellery retailers have launched a range of pre-booking options, cashback deals, and price protection offers in a bid to draw customers this Akshaya Tritiya 2026.

Senco Gold has introduced festive offers across its portfolio, including discounts on diamond jewellery, reduced making charges and price benefits on gold purchases. The company is also offering favourable terms on old gold exchange, aiming to make festive buying more attractive for customers.

Reva Diamonds by PNGS, backed by the legacy of P. N. Gadgil & Sons, has announced a limited-period offer on certified natural diamond jewellery. The scheme, running until April 19, is available across its stores in Maharashtra as well as online, targeting festive demand ahead of Akshaya Tritiya.

Meanwhile, Malabar Gold & Diamonds is offering discounts on making charges and diamond value across select jewellery categories, with certain exclusions such as gold coins, solitaires and gift cards. The offers are primarily available through its online platform in India.

Tanishq has focused on price assurance, introducing a gold rate protection scheme for advance and custom orders. Under this plan, customers paying a minimum advance can lock in gold prices and benefit from the lower of the booked rate or the prevailing rate at the time of billing. The offer is valid across stores for bookings made during the festive period.