India, however, seems poised to overtake China in its publication rate in biofuels within the next few years. "This is significant and would mark the only technology in which the lead country isn’t the US or China," the report adds.

The report reveals a shift in research leadership over the past two decades towards large economies in the Indo-Pacific, led by China’s exceptional gains. The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven. China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–2007, but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.

China is building the foundations to become the world’s leading S&T (science and technology) superpower by establishing an often-dominant lead in high-impact research in most critical and emerging technologies, says the report. However, China’s dominant high-impact research performance across so many technologies doesn’t necessarily equate to the same dominance in actualising those technologies. "In advanced aircraft engines, for example, 10 out of 10 of the world’s top-performing institutions in the Tech Tracker are in China, and the country currently produces over 70% of the world’s high-impact research.”

Another notable change involves the U.K., which has dropped out of the top 5 country rankings in eight technologies, declining from 44 last year to 36 now. Besides India and the UK, the performance of most secondary S&T research powers (those countries ranked behind China and the US) in the top 5 rankings is largely unchanged: Germany (27), South Korea (24), Italy (15), Iran (8), Japan (8) and Australia (7).

ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker is a dataset that allows users to track 64 technologies that are foundational for our economies, societies, national security, defence, energy production, health and climate security. It focuses on the top 10% of the most highly cited research publications from the past 21 years (2003–2023).

India in AI

India among top 5 countries in critical tech, 3rd in AI globally: ASPI