Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to remain firm on sustained safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties, the Economic Survey 2026 said. 

Precious metal prices have already seen sharp gains in domestic and global markets. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Thursday, silver futures for March delivery surged ₹22,090, or 5.73%, to a record high of ₹4,07,456 per kg. Gold futures for February delivery jumped ₹14,586, or 8.8%, to hit a fresh peak of ₹1,80,501 per 10 grams. 

Gold & silver futures

The rally mirrored strong overseas cues. On the Comex, gold futures crossed the $5,600 per ounce mark for the first time, with the April contract rising 5.4% to a record $5,626.8 per ounce. Comex silver futures also climbed to a new all-time high of $119.51 per ounce. 

“The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved,” the survey said. It added that India's inflation rate, both headline and core excluding precious metals, is likely to be higher in FY27 than in FY26, though it is not expected to pose a major concern. 

Economic Survey, however, cautioned that risks from currency fluctuations, potential surges in base metal prices and ongoing global uncertainties persist, warranting close monitoring and adaptive policy responses. 

Inflation outlook

As per the survey, the overall inflation outlook remains benign, supported by favourable supply-side conditions, strong agricultural output, and the gradual pass-through of GST rate rationalisation. Stable global commodity prices and continued policy vigilance are also expected to keep inflation within target ranges.  

According to the survey, both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have projected a gradual rise in headline inflation next fiscal year, keeping it within the RBI’s target band of 4%, with a tolerance range of plus or minus 2%. The IMF has projected inflation at 2.8% in FY26 and 4% in FY27 while the RBI has forecast headline inflation at 3.9% in the first quarter and 4% in the second quarter of FY27.