India’s quick-commerce boom has now hit its profitability moment

India’s e-commerce market is moving into a new phase where the focus is on how retailers build supply chains. With gross merchandise value projected to climb from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030, the fastest disruption is coming from quick commerce.

Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart have turned rapid delivery into a daily habit, whereas Amazon Now, Flipkart Minutes, JioMart and Tata Neu Flash are expanding the contest.  The race has finally shifted tracks and the quick commerce players are now trying to turn speed, selection and dense local networks into a sustainable business.

An Infisum Modeling report says dark stores, the local fulfilment hubs behind 10-minute deliveries, will nearly triple from 2,525 in late 2025 to 7,500 by 2030. The expansion would take their footprint to about 38 million sq ft, even as investors and operators shift their attention to the tougher question of unit economics.

The report places quick commerce at the centre of India’s next e-commerce expansion. Overall e-commerce gross merchandise value is forecast to rise from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion in 2030, a CAGR of 18.4%. Quick commerce could contribute $65 billion to $70 billion by 2030, though conservative projections put the market at $27 billion to $29 billion. It is expected to account for 45% to 50% of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years.

Dr Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, fellow, NITI Aayog and founder, Infisum, said, “Quick commerce is permanent infrastructure, not a trend. Valued at $65–70 billion by 2030, it will drive 45–50% of incremental e-retail growth. Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes are positioned to be preferred players. Amazon Now by converting just 20–25% of their existing consumer base would leapfrog pure-play competitors, leveraging established trust with rapid delivery to capture market leadership.”

Will the scale meet the profitability test?

Quick commerce already accounted for about two-thirds of online grocery orders in India in 2024 and roughly 10% of total e-retail spending, as per Bain & Company. However, the Infisum report describes the market as “still nascent”, with competitive intensity far greater than in traditional e-commerce and leadership far from settled.

Blinkit leads the field with about 44% market share, followed by Zepto at around 25% and Swiggy Instamart at about 20%, the report says. Blinkit processed more than 900 million orders in FY26. The numbers show the category’s growing habit value, but also its expensive route to scale; the company reached contribution-margin positivity only in 2024 after years of losses.

Zepto, which raised $450 million at a $7 billion valuation and has filed for an IPO in mid-2026, still faces an uncertain timeline to profitability. “Many players continue to operate with unsustainable unit economics, heavily dependent on external capital,” the report says, noting that the 2023-24 funding winter exposed the fragility of a growth-at-any-cost model.

“The market is driven by aggressive volume expansion, but operating margins remain paper-thin and most platforms are running cash-burn models heavily dependent on external capital,” said Gopalakrishnan.

The pressure is widening as incumbents build capacity. Reliance’s JioMart has operationalised more than 600 dark stores, Tata’s Neu Flash operates in 20 cities, and Flipkart Minutes is targeting a higher average order value of ₹750-800. Dark stores typically carry around 2,000 high-rotation SKUs, putting frequently purchased groceries and household goods close to residential clusters rather than holding millions of products in central warehouses.

“Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy together dominate around 89-90% of the market. So, definitely whatever market that is remaining is shared by all the others. So, that would be single digit percentage at most,” opined Gopalakrishnan.

Amazon Now is the report’s preferred example of an infrastructure-led alternative to the subsidy race. Amazon plans to expand the service to more than 300 cities and add 100 urban fulfilment centres by year-end, drawing on its existing logistics network. Amazon has committed $48 billion in India investment by 2030, alongside more than ₹2,800 crore for associate safety, health and financial wellbeing and ₹2,000 crore for its operations network.

At the same time, Gopalakrishnan does not see any sign of either JioMart or Tata getting big in quick commerce as of now. “But I think this is something that can emerge over time... But right now, I don't see enough sign to be confident enough to say that they will be among the great players,” he added.

Beyond the grocery basket

The opportunity extends beyond milk and staples. Quick-commerce platforms are moving into premium personal care, luxury lifestyle products and medical supplies, while online grocery itself is projected to reach $60 billion by 2030. As customers become more comfortable ordering everyday goods on demand, the category is increasingly competing for a larger share of household spending rather than merely replacing an emergency run to the neighbourhood store.

But the wider assortment also brings a more complex cost base. Fraud, returns and compliance expenses could temper the upside, particularly for platforms already spending heavily on delivery and customer acquisition. Global e-commerce fraud is projected to exceed $131 billion by 2030, the report says, while returns remain a drain on profitability in cash-on-delivery-heavy markets. India’s social-security requirements will also require platforms to contribute 1% to 2% of turnover to a worker fund, with Karnataka setting a range of 1% to 5%. For quick-commerce companies, the challenge is to broaden the basket without letting the cost of every rapid delivery outpace the value of the order.

For a business built on speed, the report says quick commerce offers “the clearest illustration of the two competing philosophies” in Indian retail. Winners will be those that turn proximity, assortment and delivery density into a profitable routine.