The ongoing war and stalemate in the Hormuz Strait will cause oil demand to contract by 80 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) on average this year. This would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption,  said the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Overall, global oil demand is estimated to contract by 800 kb/d year-on-year in March and by 2.3 mb/d in April. Global oil demand is now projected to decline by 80 kb/d on average in 2026, compared to growth of 730 kb/d expected a month earlier.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, IEA said global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history. OPEC+ production fell 9.4 mb/d m-o-m to 42.4 mb/d while non-OPEC+ supply declined 770 kb/d m-o-m to 54.7 mb/d, as lower Qatari output offset gains in Brazil and the United States.

Global crude throughputs continue to struggle with disruptions to feedstock supplies and infrastructure damage that are tightening global product markets. In April, Middle East and feedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d. Global crude runs are now expected to decline by 1 mb/d on average in 2026, to 82.9 mb/d. Refining margins temporarily surged as middle distillate cracks reached all-time highs.

Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 mb in March, with stocks outside of the Middle East Gulf drawn down by a significant 205 mb (-6.6 mb/d) as flows through the Strait of Hormuz were choked off. At the same time, with limited outlets after the effective closure of the Strait, floating storage of crude and oil products in the Middle East rose by 100 mb and onshore crude stocks in the region were up by 20 mb. China added 40 mb of crude to tanks.

IEA said in early April, shipments through the Strait remained severely restricted, with loadings of crude, natural gas liquids and refined products averaging around 3.8 mb/d, compared with more than 20 mb/d in February ahead of the crisis. Exports through alternative routes – most notably from the west coast of Saudi Arabia and Fujairah on the east coast of the UAE, as well as the ITP pipeline that runs from Iraq to Ceyhan in Türkiye – had increased to 7.2 mb/d from less than 4 mb/d before the war. The overall loss in oil exports exceeds 13 mb/d, with associated production curtailment and damage to energy infrastructure in the region resulting in cumulative supply losses of more than 360 mb in March and 440 mb projected for April.

Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March in the wake of the most severe oil supply shock in history. Spot crude benchmarks and differentials soared, outpacing futures markets, as refiners anxiously scrambled to replace locked-in Middle Eastern cargoes. With oil-importing nations scrambling to source replacement barrels from an increasingly shrinking pool of supply, physical crude oil prices surged to record levels near $150 per barrel, far above the prices in futures markets, with the physical-futures disconnect becoming increasingly acute. Even steeper gains have been seen for refined products, with middle distillate prices in Singapore reaching all-time highs above $290 per barrel, observed IEA. 

Meanwhile, a joint statement from the Heads of the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund(IMF), and World Bank Group, said it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels—even after a resumption of regular shipping flows through the Strait - and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure. Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries. The war has also forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse.

''We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries, and to coordinate our response and support to our member countries—working with, and drawing on, other international organizations’ expertise as needed to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs,” said the statement.