Global crude prices climbed sharply in early Asian trade on Tuesday, recovering a part of the previous session’s steep losses, as concerns over supply disruptions resurfaced amid continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz and limited international support for securing the route. 

Brent crude futures rose $2.48, or 2.5%, to $102.69 per barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced $2.42, or 2.6%, to $95.92 in early deals. The uptick follows a volatile session on Monday when both benchmarks had declined after reports that some tankers managed to pass through the strategic waterway. 

Strait disruption keeps markets on edge 

Market sentiment remains fragile as the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for nearly a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, continues to face significant disruption due to the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, now entering its third week. The situation has heightened fears of tighter supplies, pushing up energy prices, and raising concerns about inflationary pressures globally. 

Adding to the uncertainty, several US allies declined Washington’s request to deploy naval forces to escort commercial vessels through the strait. The reluctance drew criticism from US President Donald Trump, who expressed dissatisfaction over the lack of support from long-standing partners. 

Supply cuts, outlook revisions signal prolonged uncertainty 

The disruption has already begun impacting production. The United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest producer, has reportedly curtailed output by more than half due to logistical constraints linked to the strait’s closure. 

In response to rising energy prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that member nations could consider additional releases from strategic reserves, building on the 400 million barrels already committed. 

Financial institutions are also adjusting their outlooks to reflect prolonged uncertainty. Bank of America has raised its Brent price forecast for 2026 to $77.50 per barrel from $61 while Standard Chartered revised its estimate upward to $85.50 from $70. According to BofA, prices could ease to around $70 if the disruption is resolved quickly, but may climb towards $85 if supply constraints persist into the second quarter. 

 Meanwhile, Israel has hinted that military operations against Iran are set to continue for at least three more weeks following fresh strikes on multiple targets overnight, suggesting that geopolitical risks to oil markets are unlikely to ease in the near term.