As we bid farewell to Samvat 2081 and step into Samvat 2082, this Diwali brings a new sense of hope and optimism for retail investors. Last year was a rollercoaster for Indian equities, with the Nifty50 correcting 16% by February 2025, while Midcap and Smallcap indices fell 21% and 25%, respectively, amid U.S. policy uncertainty, rising yields, and slower domestic growth. Markets rebounded strongly in the second half, but returns since last Diwali remained muted compared with global peers.

A notable structural shift saw domestic investors stepping up, with domestic institutional investors (DIIs) infusing $74.9 billion and systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows hitting record highs, offsetting foreign outflows, Axis Direct said in a report.

Looking ahead, India’s macro backdrop remains resilient, bolstered by pro-growth fiscal and monetary measures and GST 2.0 reforms. “Entering Samvat 2082, India’s macro backdrop remains resilient, supported by pro-growth fiscal and monetary measures and GST 2.0 reforms. The valuation premium has normalised, offering a healthier entry point,” the brokerage said in its report.

With earnings recovery expected from Q3FY26 and double-digit growth likely in FY27, the market is poised for stronger performance. Technically, the Nifty shows upside potential of 26,300–27,000, with key supports at 24,500–24,000. Midcap and Smallcap indices are also expected to recover, favoring stock-specific accumulation strategies, the report noted.

“In Samvat 2080, the Nifty and Sensex surged to record highs of 26,277 and 85,978, respectively. However, both indices corrected by over 15% during Samvat 2081, creating attractive entry opportunities for long-term investors,” the report highlighted.

Top picks for Diwali Mahurat trading 2025

Analysts at Axis Direct have released their Diwali Mahurat Technical Picks 2025, offering a curated list of high-potential 12 stocks across sectors. The selections feature upside opportunities ranging from 25% to 56% over the next 12 months, providing investors with a mix of large-cap stability, mid-cap growth, and high-potential small-cap plays.

India Nippon Electricals is the top pick with a potential upside of 56%, followed by Syrma SGS Technology and Laurus Labs, with expected upside of 48% and 47%, respectively.

In the financial sector, Aditya Birla Capital is seen offering an upside of 44%, supported by healthy capital adequacy and a diversified product portfolio, while NBCC (India) Ltd. offers 45% potential, benefiting from a steady order pipeline and infrastructure sector tailwinds.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd emerges as the flagship pick in the auto space, poised for a 43% gain, backed by robust domestic demand, strong brand recall, and a growing EV transition portfolio. BSE Ltd, with a more moderate 30% upside, provides a defensive yet steady play in the exchange and financial technology segment.

Other notable picks include Inox Green Energy Services Ltd. (41% upside), reflecting the push towards clean energy solutions; MTAR Technologies Ltd. (36%), supported by precision engineering and export growth; One97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) (37%), leveraging digital payments and fintech expansion; NMDC Ltd. (45%), benefiting from iron ore demand; and State Bank of India Ltd (25%), offering a stable large-cap banking play.

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