The ongoing geopolitical conflict poses significant risks to India’s energy security across oil, gas, and clean energy value chains. Brent crude prices have surged to the $100-150 per barrel range, compared to a baseline of around $60, sharply increasing India’s import bill. This impact is amplified by India’s heavy import dependence of around 88% in crude oil, nearly 50% in natural gas, and 60% in LPG, leading to fiscal pressures through subsidies and fuel price management. Higher inflation and a weakening rupee further exacerbate procurement costs. 

Risks are especially acute across gas, LPG, and fertilizer supply chains, with the invocation of the Essential Commodities Act underscoring the need for tight rationing and supply-chain management. India’s limited storage cover of around 20 days for LPG, 10-12 days for LNG, and nearly 75 days for crude remains a key vulnerability when compared to countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, which have nearly three times higher strategic storage capacity. This has renewed policy focus on strengthening energy security planning, including the expansion of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) Phase II and the development of LPG cavern infrastructure. 

For oil, given the current and ongoing geopolitical circumstances linked to energy, India can benefit from the acceleration of SPR Phase II, which aims to raise SPR to 11.83 MMT (additional 17-18 days buffer). A separate feasibility study for six new SPR locations is also underway for the next set. For LNG, India may benefit from institutionalising proposals to build 10% additional LNG storage capacity mandate for terminals and additionally facilitate financing for 3-4 bcm underground gas storage reserves. On the LPG front, India may benefit from policy initiatives to develop underground LPG strategic reserves, with a special focus on North and the northeast. 

Current geopolitics have also revealed that maritime risks remain elevated. A significant portion of India’s energy imports transits through the Strait of Hormuz, while its merchant fleet (nearly 1,200 vessels) is considerably smaller than that of major shipping powers such as China. Rising shipping insurance premiums, longer routes, and higher freight costs are leading to delays in crude, LNG, and LPG deliveries. These developments are pushing for greater emphasis on national shipping capacity, diversified shipping routes, and logistical resilience. 

Energy infrastructure itself has emerged as a strategic vulnerability. Refineries, pipelines, and storage terminals are increasingly viewed as potential military targets—as seen globally at facilities such as Qatar’s LNG hubs and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery. Force majeure declarations by suppliers have triggered unprecedented contract disruptions. Consequently, there is a sharper focus on energy infrastructure protection, alongside rising insurance and security costs for energy assets. 

Supply chain diversification also comes into focus. Over the past decade, India has diversified its crude imports. It has imported from over 40 countries. Going forward, we can see increased sourcing from the U.S., West Africa, and Russia, while reducing sourcing concentration. This supports the formation of new energy trade corridors and strategic partnerships, reducing concentration risk in energy sourcing. 

Structurally, the crisis will accelerate domestic energy transition efforts. Government programmes promoting ethanol blending, coal gasification, compressed biogas (CBG), and upstream initiatives such as Samudra Manthan, will strengthen the domestic energy ecosystem. Investments in refining flexibility, expansion of decentralised renewable energy systems, and increased autonomy from centralised fuel supply chains will continue to gain traction. 

India has largely transitioned to being power-sufficient, with installed capacity meeting current and peak demand; however, rising demand and decarbonisation goals will require sustained capacity additions. India plans to add around 80-100 GW of thermal capacity for reliability, alongside nuclear expansion. In parallel, it is targeting nearly 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030, with the share expected to rise further by 2035, supported by a rapid scale-up of storage to around 80 GW BESS and 90+ GW pumped storage. 

India’s clean energy supply chains currently remain heavily dependent on China for solar cells, batteries, and EV components. This has reinforced the need for nearshoring and local manufacturing, faster adoption of distributed renewable energy systems, and a broader shift from pledge-driven energy transition to execution-driven energy policy. 

The current geopolitical climate, though exposing vulnerabilities across India’s oil, gas, and clean-energy value chains, also makes clear that energy security and energy transition must advance together. Immediate priorities are to expand strategic buffers and storage, shore up maritime and on-shore infrastructure, secure diversified, resilient supply and shipping corridors, and accelerate firm generation capacity alongside storage deployment to ensure grid reliability. Medium-term priorities include mandating additional LNG and LPG storage, accelerating SPR Phase II, financing underground gas reserves, and strengthening national shipping and insurance capacity. Long-term priorities are to scale 

domestic manufacturing for clean-energy components, expand clean energy capacity and storage ecosystems, deepen regional energy partnerships, and pivot from pledge-driven targets to execution-focused policies that reduce import dependence. 

A coordinated policy package, which combines targeted fiscal support, public-private financing, regulatory mandates, and diplomatic engagement, would diffuse near-term shocks and accelerate structural resilience. By pairing expanded strategic reserves and logistics resilience with rapid investments across conventional and clean energy, India can transform today’s crisis into an opportunity to build a more secure, diversified, and self-reliant energy future. 

(Moda is partner and energy sector leader; Kumar is partner, EY-Parthenon India. Views are personal.)