Creators, quick commerce, AI to drive India’s $250 billion e-commerce push by 2030

India’s e-commerce market is entering a new phase of growth, one that’s less about getting consumers online and more about how they shop once they’re there. A joint report by Google and Deloitte estimates the market will expand from about $90 billion today to $250 billion by 2030, driven by shifts in consumer behaviour, technology adoption, and new retail formats.

At the centre of this transition is a younger, more digital-first shopper. A cohort of roughly 220 million Gen Z consumers is expected to account for 45% of online spending by the end of the decade, reshaping how products are discovered and purchased. The report notes that 150 million new shoppers will join the digital economy, while per capita online spending is projected to double.

“This is a pivotal moment for Indian commerce driven by a fundamental shift in how India shops,” said Roma Datta Chobey, managing director for connected consumer commerce at Google India. “Consumers today demand experiences inspired by storytelling, powered by AI and immersive technologies, and anchored by instant fulfilment.”

How they are shifting from access to experience

The report frames this as a move from infrastructure-led growth to what it calls a “unified value” ecosystem, where discovery, validation and purchase happen almost simultaneously. Four forces which described as inspired, intelligent, instant and immersive are expected to collectively contribute $100 billion to overall market growth.

Artificial intelligence sits at the core of this shift. Beyond personalising recommendations, AI is expected to act as an “expert advisor,” helping consumers move from intent to purchase faster, while improving backend efficiencies. The report estimates AI-led interventions could drive a 30–35% increase in retail profitability.

Anand Ramanathan, partner and consumer industry leader at Deloitte South Asia, said the market is moving towards “algorithmic intimacy.” “Demand is not just predicted but synthesised in real time,” he said. “A new cohort of digital-first consumers, led by Gen Z, is accelerating the rise of generative commerce.”

Creators and quick commerce gain ground

Alongside AI, the influence of creators is set to deepen. By 2030, creators could influence 30% of total retail spending, with one in ten online purchases linked directly to creator storefronts. This trend is expected to be particularly strong in smaller cities, where creators could bring 60 million first-time buyers online.

Live commerce, still nascent in India, is projected to grow into an $8 billion segment, led by categories such as fashion, beauty and electronics.

Quick commerce, too, is expanding beyond its early urban strongholds. The segment is expected to reach $50 billion in value, with its user base doubling to 70 million. Notably, non-food categories are projected to contribute 45% of total spend, signalling a shift from grocery-led use cases to broader consumption.

Tier 2 and smaller cities are expected to account for 30% of the quick commerce market, indicating that the model is finding traction beyond metros. Hybrid models that integrate offline retail inventory with online platforms could unlock an additional $20 billion in spending, the report said.

Immersive technologies are also beginning to influence buying decisions. Nearly one in three Indian shoppers now prefers virtual try-ons, and 72% are willing to pay a premium for tech-enabled experiences. This is gradually redefining the role of physical stores as they move away from inventory hubs to experience centres.

What emerges is a market that’s growing not just in size, but in complexity. The next phase of India’s e-commerce story will depend on how well companies combine technology, logistics and content to meet a consumer who expects speed, relevance and trust, all at once.