FM Nirmala Sitharaman to table Economic Survey today; Survey may take cautious stance on FY27 GDP projections
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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey 2025-26 at 12 p.m. in Parliament today.
Given the upswing in the economic growth in the current financial year, it will be interesting to watch out the growth numbers the survey will peg for the next financial year.
Cautious approach on GDP likely in Economic Survey
It is highly likely that the government may maintain a cautious approach on the growth outlook given the geopolitical and tariff disruptions. The growth projections made in the Economic Survey to be tabled today will be based on the current GDP series. It is likely that the GDP projections contained in the Survey may see some alterations going forward, once the new series with 2022-23 as the base kicks in from February this year.
Domestic economy bettered FY26 projections
That said, the domestic economy has significantly bettered the growth projection of 6.3% - 6.8% for FY26 made in the Economic Survey last year.
In the first advance estimates for national income for the current financial year released on January 7, the government pegged GDP at 7.4%.
January 2026
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"Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0% in FY 2025-26. Buoyant Growth in services Sector has been found to be a major driver in the estimated real GVA growth rate of 7.3% in FY 2025-26," the estimates suggested.
"Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services in the Tertiary Sector have been estimated to attain a substantial growth rate of 9.9% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26," it added.
Deloitte has projected FY26 GDP growth in the range of 7.5%-7.8% for FY2025-26 on the back of festive demand and robust services activity. The agency said 2025 will be remembered as the year of resilience, decisive reforms, and recalibrations in the trade policies.
India is set to clock 7.5% GDP growth in FY2026, above earlier estimates and the RBI baseline, driven by robust first-half momentum and resilient domestic demand, with demand set to continue, resulting in FY2027 growth of 6.6%, according to the latest India 2026 report by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B), a global business data and analytics company. For the next financial year, Crisil has pegged the GDP growth at 6.7%.
“India’s resilience is no accident. It stems from sustained pro-growth policies,” said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India in a report released earlier this month.
“Early in 2025, signals of external risks such as unpredictable trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and slowing growth among major partners prompted decisive action. Policymakers introduced tax exemptions, policy rate cuts, and GST rationalization to boost demand. Favorable inflation trends added buoyancy, while trade recalibration through multiple FTAs strengthened exports,” she added.