Shrimp exports to top ₹50,000 crore this fiscal, led by expansion into new markets

India’s shrimp exports are expected to cross ₹50,000 crore in the current financial year, rising 13–15% year-on-year after three years of stagnation, supported by favourable currency movements and expanding shipments to newer markets, according to a report by CRISIL Ratings. 

The growth will largely be driven by improved realisations as the rupee has depreciated sharply against the US dollar and the euro. Export volumes are projected to grow 6–7% this fiscal, even as shipments to the US, the largest market for Indian shrimp, fell on higher tariffs. 

The industry has partly offset the impact of US tariffs by diversifying exports to other markets and tapping new buyers. Overall export volumes rose about 9.5% in the first nine months of the fiscal despite a roughly 15% decline in shipments to the US. As a result, the US share in India’s shrimp exports is expected to fall to 32–33% this fiscal from around 40% last year. 

How is market diversification supporting exports? 

According to CRISIL Ratings, shipments to markets outside the US have grown strongly this year, helping maintain export momentum. “Shrimp exports beyond the US have grown in double digits in the first nine months this fiscal. Volume is up 62% to Vietnam, 43% to the EU and in double digits to China. In value terms, growth in exports to these markets has been sharper, with higher tariffs and rupee depreciation translating into better realisations,” said Rahul Guha, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings. 

The report said free trade agreements, quicker approvals, and improved market access to regions such as Russia and the European Union have helped Indian exporters expand their global footprint. Superior product quality and strong processing capacities have also helped the industry’s shift toward newer markets. 

Looking ahead, export volumes are projected to rise 3–5% next fiscal as aquaculture production increases in anticipation of stronger demand, particularly from the US. Tariffs imposed by the US are expected to ease to around 15%, bringing them in line with competing nations and helping restore shipments to earlier levels. 

CRISIL expects export revenues to grow another 8–10% next year as trade agreements with the US and the EU begin to take effect and demand improves across markets. 

Will margins and credit profiles remain stable? 

Despite changes in export markets and tariff conditions, profitability for shrimp processors is expected to remain steady. Operating margins are likely to stay in the range of 7–7.5% this fiscal and the next, as benefits from lower tariffs are expected to be passed on to customers. 

The credit profile of exporters is also expected to remain stable, supported by low long-term debt levels and healthy cash generation. 

“The credit profiles of shrimp processors should remain stable as demand from the US is expected to pick up from April 2026, once tariffs are lowered. Interest coverage of companies rated by us is expected at 5 -- 5.5 times this fiscal and the next, vis-à-vis 4.8 times last fiscal,” said Himank Sharma, Director, CRISIL Ratings. 

Financial leverage is expected to remain comfortable at around 0.7 times, broadly unchanged from the previous fiscal, as processors are not planning significant capacity expansions, and capital expenditure remains limited. However, CRISIL said the global economic outlook, tariff environment, and foreign exchange volatility will remain key factors to watch for the industry going forward.