The goods and service tax (GST) revenue collection in the month of February 2024 stood at ₹1,68,337 crore, up 12.5% from ₹1,49,577 crore in the same period last financial year. The gross GST revenue collected in January 2024 was ₹1,72,129 crore.

“This growth was driven by a 13.9% rise in GST from domestic transactions and 8.5% increase in GST from import of goods. GST revenue net of refunds for February 2024 is ₹1.51 lakh crore which is a growth of 13.6% over that for the same period last year,” the ministry of finance says in a release today.

Of the total revenue collected, central goods and services tax (CGST) stands at ₹31,785 crore, State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) is ₹39,615 crore, Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) is ₹84,098 crore (including ₹38,593 crore collected on imported goods) while cess is ₹12,839 crore (₹984 crore collected on imported goods).

As of February 2024, the total gross GST collection for the current fiscal year stands at ₹18.40 lakh crore, which is 11.7% higher than the collection for the same period in FY 2022-23, the release notes.

The average monthly gross collection for FY24 is ₹1.67 lakh crore, exceeding the ₹1.5 lakh crore collected in the previous year's corresponding period.

GST revenue net of refunds as of February 2024 for the current fiscal year is ₹16.36 lakh crore which is a growth of 13% over that for the same period last year. 

“Overall, the GST revenue figures demonstrate continued growth momentum and positive performance,” the release notes.

In FY24 so far, the gross GST collection has remained above the ₹1.57 lakh crore mark - the highest ₹1.87 lakh crore in April and the lowest ₹1.57 lakh crore in May. The ₹1.87 lakh crore collected in April 2024 was the highest ever GST collections since its launch in July 2017. In June 2024, the collection was ₹1.61 lakh crore, followed by ₹1.65 lakh crore in July; ₹1.59 lakh crore in August; ₹1.62 lakh crore in September, ₹1.72 lakh crore in October, ₹1.68 lakh crore in November, and ₹1.65 lakh crore in December.  

The GST data is in sync with gross domestic product (GDP) numbers released on February 29, which showed that the economy grew to a six-quarter high at 8.4% in October-December quarter of the current fiscal (Q3 FY24). The strong growth in GDP number was driven by double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector (11.6%) sector, followed by 9.5% growth in the construction sector. Boosted by higher than expected Q3 numbers, the full-year GDP growth estimate has been revised upward to 7.6% from 7.3% projected earlier.

SBI Research, in its latest on GDP, says that based on a 7.6% GDP growth estimate in FY24, Q4 GDP growth is estimated at 5.9%, which it believes is an "understatement". "Thus it is most likely that FY24 GDP growth could be within striking distance of 8%."

Meanwhile, Nuvama Institutional Equities, in its report, says while the real GDP growth is holding up, underlying activity is decelerating. For FY25, it thinks while the exports drag is fading, fiscal and monetary policy would push the economy lower. “We maintain FY25 growth forecast of 6% YoY, which implies a deceleration in economic activity."

Global banking major UBS, in its latest note on GDP, has lifted its FY25 GDP growth forecast to 7% for India. “Incorporating better than expected real GDP growth in Dec quarter (8.4%YoY vs. our estimate of 6.7%) and signals from our lead indicator suggesting resilient economic activity, we raise our India’s FY25 real GDP growth to 7%YoY (from 6.2%YoY earlier).”

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