In FY24 so far, the gross GST collection has remained above the ₹1.57 lakh crore mark - the highest ₹1.87 lakh crore in April and the lowest ₹1.57 lakh crore in May. The ₹1.87 lakh crore collected in April 2024 was the highest ever GST collections since its launch in July 2017. In June 2024, the collection was ₹1.61 lakh crore, followed by ₹1.65 lakh crore in July; ₹1.59 lakh crore in August; ₹1.62 lakh crore in September, ₹1.72 lakh crore in October, ₹1.68 lakh crore in November, and ₹1.65 lakh crore in December.

The GST data is in sync with gross domestic product (GDP) numbers released on February 29, which showed that the economy grew to a six-quarter high at 8.4% in October-December quarter of the current fiscal (Q3 FY24). The strong growth in GDP number was driven by double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector (11.6%) sector, followed by 9.5% growth in the construction sector. Boosted by higher than expected Q3 numbers, the full-year GDP growth estimate has been revised upward to 7.6% from 7.3% projected earlier.

SBI Research, in its latest on GDP, says that based on a 7.6% GDP growth estimate in FY24, Q4 GDP growth is estimated at 5.9%, which it believes is an "understatement". "Thus it is most likely that FY24 GDP growth could be within striking distance of 8%."

Meanwhile, Nuvama Institutional Equities, in its report, says while the real GDP growth is holding up, underlying activity is decelerating. For FY25, it thinks while the exports drag is fading, fiscal and monetary policy would push the economy lower. “We maintain FY25 growth forecast of 6% YoY, which implies a deceleration in economic activity."

Global banking major UBS, in its latest note on GDP, has lifted its FY25 GDP growth forecast to 7% for India. “Incorporating better than expected real GDP growth in Dec quarter (8.4%YoY vs. our estimate of 6.7%) and signals from our lead indicator suggesting resilient economic activity, we raise our India’s FY25 real GDP growth to 7%YoY (from 6.2%YoY earlier).”

February GST collection

February GST collection rises 12.5% YoY to ₹1.68 lakh crore