Crude prices remain elevated even as OPEC+ raises output to 188,000 bpd in first meeting after UAE’s exit

Global crude oil prices remained elevated on Monday despite a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) to raise output targets for June 2026. Persistent concerns over tightness in the energy market, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and potential disruptions to crude trade through the Strait of Hormuz, continued to keep prices elevated.

At the time of writing, Brent crude hovered around the $108 per barrel mark, compared to $108.17 in the previous session. Notably, Brent’s June futures had settled close to $114 per barrel at the end of last week, as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment.

In a fresh development, Iran has softened its conditions for reopening the strait, though US President Donald Trump said he is “not satisfied” with the proposal. Meanwhile, the US Baker Hughes rig count rose by just one this week and remains 64 below year-ago levels.

Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading 0.29% lower at $101.64 per barrel, easing slightly from its previous close of $101.94.

OPEC+ raises output targets for June

The price resilience comes even as OPEC+, in its first meeting since the exit of key member United Arab Emirates, agreed to raise output targets for June 2026 in a bid to stabilise global supply. However, market participants remain cautious as supply-side disruptions and geopolitical tensions—particularly around key transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices.

Seven key members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held a virtual meeting on May 3, 2026, to assess global market conditions and outlook, reiterating their commitment to maintaining stability.

As part of ongoing voluntary production adjustments first announced in April and November 2023, the group agreed to implement a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day from June 2026. The move aims to gradually ease supply constraints while retaining flexibility to respond to evolving market dynamics. The countries noted that these adjustments could be modified—paused, reversed, or expanded, depending on market conditions.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in June 2026,” OPEC+ said in a release.

The release also highlighted that the latest adjustment would help accelerate compensation for any overproduction since January 2024. The group reaffirmed its commitment to full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, with adherence to production targets to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

Looking ahead, the group will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, with the next meeting scheduled for June 7, 2026, where further production decisions will be evaluated in light of prevailing global trends.