Rupee hits fresh record low of 92.484 against dollar as crude crosses $100 amid Middle East crisis  

The Indian rupee fell to a fresh low against the US dollar on Friday as surging crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over India’s external balances and energy supply disruptions.

The rupee opened weaker at 92.312 per dollar, compared with the previous close of 92.368, and extended losses in early trade to 92.484, down about 0.12% against the greenbacks.

Analysts attributed the weakness primarily to the spike in global oil prices after fresh attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above the $100-per-barrel mark, raising concerns over India’s import bill. As India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil, the surge in international energy prices could lead to an additional foreign currency outflow of $7–8 billion per month.

Jateen Trivedi, Vice President – Research Analyst (Commodity and Currency) at LKP Securities, said the rupee remained under pressure as volatile crude prices and a stronger dollar weighed on the currency.

“Rupee traded weaker as the dollar index hovered above 99 and volatile crude prices kept pressure on the currency. Oil movements remain a key driver for the rupee, with crude on the domestic exchange rising another 4% today, which tends to widen India’s import bill and weigh on the currency,” he said.

Trivedi added that the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 91.45–92.75, with investors closely watching upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including initial jobless claims and GDP figures.

Meanwhile, Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the rupee recovered some ground after hitting a record low as support from the Reserve Bank of India and a slight pullback in oil prices helped stabilise the currency.

“After stumbling to a historic low, the rupee recouped some ground, anchored by central bank support and a pullback in oil benchmarks. Though the rupee stabilised, the overarching momentum stays skewed to the downside,” Parmar said.

He added that spot USD/INR faces resistance near 92.50, while support is seen around 91.60.

Several factors have contributed to the rupee’s weakness in recent sessions. The sharp jump in oil prices has raised concerns over India’s trade deficit, while rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have driven safe-haven demand for the dollar, pushing the US Dollar Index to around 99.50, its highest level in 2026.

Foreign capital outflows have also added to pressure on the local currency. On March 12, 2026, Foreign Institutional Investors were net sellers in Indian equities, offloading shares worth ₹7,049.87 crore, according to provisional data. So far in 2026, FIIs have withdrawn ₹46,166.58 crore from Indian markets.

The rupee’s decline also mirrored weakness across regional currencies as global investors moved toward the safety of the dollar amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

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