India GDP growth: IMF ups 2025 forecast to 6.6% despite US tariffs — here's how other agencies stack up

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.6% from 6.4% in its previous economic outlook forecast, attributing it to strong growth, which has offset the impact of US tariffs. In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the multilateral lending agency, however, lowered India's GDP growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.2% for 2026.

India’s GDP growth in the June-end came in at a five-quarter high of 7.8%, primarily due to a boost in manufacturing, services and construction. This has also helped offset the impact of the US tariffs on India, says the IMF.

"In India, growth is projected to be 6.6 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026. Compared with the July WEO Update, this is an upward revision for 2025, with carryover from a strong first quarter more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July, and a downward revision for 2026. Compared with the pre-tariff forecast in October 2024, growth is projected to be cumulatively 0.2 percentage point lower," the IMF report said.

For India, the IMF presents data and forecasts on a fiscal year basis, and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year.

IMF's positive growth forecast for India comes at a time when its estimates on emerging and developing Asia suggest an overall decline from 5.3% in 2024 to 5.2% in 2025 and further to 4.7% in 2026. For quite a few countries in the region—particularly in ASEAN, among the most affected—the evolution of growth forecasts largely mimicked that of effective tariff rates, says the IMF.

For China, the IMF downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage point in the April 2025 WEO, with the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States, and then upward by 0.8 percentage point in the July WEO Update, following the pause on higher rates in May. Compared with the October 2024 WEO projection, growth, at 4.8% in China, is expected to be 0.3 percentage point higher. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026 to 4.2%, it said.

Meanwhile, the IMF's growth projections on India are in line with that of the Reserve Bank, which in its last MPC meeting had estimated to be 6.5% for 2025-26. Other key domestic and global agencies have also upgraded India's GDP forecast for 2025-26 despite huge tensions with the US on the tariff front. Let's have a look.

World Bank: The World Bank raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY26 from its earlier projection of 6.3% in June, attributing it to the country's resilient domestic demand, strong rural recovery, improved agricultural output and the recent tax reforms. It said that India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy, and projected the economy to grow 6.3% in FY27. The World Bank also says growth in South Asia is projected to be robust at 6.6% this year—but a significant slowdown looms on the horizon. "Reforms to promote trade openness and technology adoption could help the region create jobs and catalyse growth, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year regional outlook."

S&P: Global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings retained India's GDP forecast at 6.5% for 2025-26 (FY26) on strong domestic demand, favourable monsoon, GST reforms and the government’s infrastructure push. “We forecast India's GDP growth to hold steady at 6.5% this fiscal year (year ending March 31, 2026). We expect domestic demand to remain strong, supported by a largely benign monsoon season, cuts in the income tax and the goods and services tax, and accelerating government investment,” S&P said in its Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q4 2025 report.

ICRA: Credit rating agency ICRA upgraded its GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from 6% for FY26. In an August 26 note, ICRA had estimated the GDP growth for full fiscal year to be at 6.0%, ‘amid headwinds posed by uncertain trade policies and geopolitical scenario.’ The agency said the revision comes on the back of preponed revised GST rates implementation ahead of the festive season, and the better-than-expected Q1 GDP growth.

CRISIL: Crisil expects India’s GDP growth to be at 6.5% for the fiscal year 2026, with a possible downside risk on the back of global uncertainties. The S&P Global subsidiary anticipates exports growth to be impacted due to the imposition of 50% tariffs by the U.S. from August. Labour-intensive industries and private investment delays may follow from the U.S. tariffs pressure and global growth slowdown.