UDF set to end Pinarayi Vijayan’s 10-year rule in Kerala

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has stormed back to power in Kerala, likely winning over 100 of the 140 Assembly seats and bringing an end to the decade-long rule of Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), according to the latest available trends.

A strong wave of anti-incumbency, coupled with voter fatigue against a leadership seen as overly centralised, played a decisive role in the outcome. The election also delivered a major upset for the ruling front, with more than half of the sitting ministers losing in their constituencies.

In a significant development, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made its biggest-ever breakthrough in the state by winning three Assembly seats. Previously, its only victory came in 2016 when former Union Minister of State for Railways O. Rajagopal won from Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram.

This time, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, state president of BJP Kerala and also a technocrat and businessman, defeated CPI(M) leader and education minister V. Sivankutty in Nemom by 4,978 votes, according to the Election Commission website. Former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan secured a narrow win in Kazhakkoottam, defeating education minister Kadakampally Surendran by just 428 votes. In Kollam’s Chathannoor, BJP candidate B. B. Gopakumar registered an unexpected but comfortable victory.

In the last state assembly elections in 2021, LDF had secured 98 seats, sweeping northern districts, central and South Kerala constituencies. The scale of the LDF’s setback in 2026 is underscored by the erosion of its traditional strongholds. Districts such as Kannur, Kollam, and Alappuzha—long considered bastions of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)—swung away from the ruling alliance, while regions like Thrissur and Palakkad offered some solace with some seats.

Adding to the LDF’s troubles, three CPI(M) rebel leaders, backed by the UDF secured wins—G. Sudhakaran in Alappuzha, V. Kunhikrishnan in Payyannur, and T. K. Govindan in Thaliparamba.

Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who trailed in the initial six rounds, won from the Dharmadam constituency in Kannur with 19,247 votes.

However, several prominent ministers lost in the 2026 elections. They include MB Rajesh (excise minister) in Thrithala; O.R. Kelu, minister for the welfare of scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and backward classes in Wayanad; R. Bindu, minister for higher education and social justice lost from the Irinjalakuda constituency, V.N. Vasavan, minister for ports and cooperation and minister for devaswoms from Ettumanoor, and transport minister B. Ganeshkumar at Pathanapuram.

The election saw major UDF allies like Muslim League (24 out of 27), Kerala Congress (Joseph group) and RSP winning most of the constituencies, according to the latest available trends. As against this, Kerala Congress (Mani group), part of LDF, saw almost all their candidates (12) failing in this election. 

The UDF campaign, led by Opposition leader V. D. Satheesan, focussed on allegations of corruption, controversies such as the Sabarimala gold theft issue, and criticism of what it described as an “arrogant” and overly centralised style of governance under Vijayan.

In contrast, the LDF’s campaign leaned heavily on Vijayan’s leadership and highlighted development initiatives, including the Vizhinjam International Seaport and road infrastructure expansion. However, that narrative failed to counter the strong anti-incumbency sentiment that ultimately reshaped Kerala’s political landscape.