Reliance shares fall 3%; YTD loss widens to 17%, ₹3.43 lakh crore wiped out in CY26

Shares of Reliance Industries , India’s most valuable company by market capitalisation, witnessed sharp selling pressure on Monday, declining as much as 3% after crude oil prices rebounded to $105 per barrel. The spike in oil followed the breakdown of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

Investor sentiment was further hit by reports that the U.S. may consider restricting access through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that handles nearly 20% of global LNG supply, after negotiations with Iran failed.

Weighed down by these developments, RIL shares fell as much as 2.97% to an intraday low of ₹1,310 on the BSE, erasing nearly ₹48,000 crore in market capitalisation. At the time of writing, the stock was trading 2.57% lower at ₹1,315.50, with a market capitalisation of ₹17.80 lakh crore.

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the stock has declined about 17%, with investor wealth eroding by roughly ₹3.43 lakh crore. Its market capitalisation has fallen from ₹21.23 lakh crore as of December 31, 2025.

The shares of RIL hit a 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 on January 5, 2026, and a 52-week low of ₹1,197.05 on April 11, 2025. The stock has delivered a return of about 6% over the past one year, but has declined more than 4% in the last six months.

So far in 2026, the stock’s steepest single-day decline came on March 27, when it dropped 4.6%, wiping out nearly ₹80,000 crore in value after the government reinstated windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) exports.

Technical outlook

Technically, RIL is currently in a corrective downtrend on the weekly chart, trading below key EMAs, which signals continued weakness. However, the stock is nearing a strong demand zone around ₹1,270–₹1,300 that could provide support, said Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio.

“The RSI, hovering around 35–40, indicates that momentum is approaching oversold territory, raising the likelihood of a technical pullback rather than a full-fledged trend reversal. From a risk-reward standpoint (1:2), the ₹1,310–₹1,330 range appears to be an attractive buy zone, with a stop loss at ₹1,260 and an upside target of ₹1,450–₹1,470, as this zone coincides with resistance from declining EMAs,” he noted.

Overall, while the broader trend remains weak, a short-term bounce is possible if the support holds, presenting a tactical trading opportunity, he added.

Will Middle East conflict impact Q4 earnings?

According to analysts, oil and gas companies’ March quarter earnings are likely to be impacted by the Middle East conflict that escalated in March, driving crude prices higher. Brent crude has surged around 45% since February 27, 2026, rising from $72 to $105 per barrel, amid heightened volatility, with prices briefly nearing $120 at the peak of the crisis.

The Mukesh Ambani-led telecom-to-oil conglomerate is set to announce its March quarter results later this month. According to Systematix Institutional Equities, Reliance is likely to report consolidated EBITDA of ₹47,600 crore, up 8.5% year-on-year and 3.4% sequentially, supported by steady performance in its retail segment and continued momentum in telecom.

Revenue from Jio is expected to grow around 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 0.6% rise in subscriber base and a roughly 1% sequential improvement in ARPU to about ₹216.

The retail business is projected to see EBITDA rise 3.6% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, with margins remaining strong and expanding by around 70 basis points.

Meanwhile, the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment is expected to post a 13.9% year-on-year and 15.7% sequential increase in revenue, led by a 2.5% YoY and 1% QoQ rise in throughput. EBITDA for the segment is likely to grow 18% YoY and 8% QoQ, aided by improved diesel cracks in a volatile operating environment.