‘Buy before June 4’: Amit Shah says stock market set to ‘shoot up’ after election results

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said the stock market will “shoot up” after June 4, 2024, which is when the results of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will be announced. He claimed the BJP and its allies will come to power in huge majority and that the NDA alliance will cross the 400-plus mark. The Union minister, during a TV interview, said though the stock market should not be linked to polls, the markets perform better whenever there's a stable government at the Centre. The Union minister was replying to a question on recent corrections in the market.

According to the Union Home Minister, the stock market crash can't be linked to elections. However, he says even if such rumours are spread, "I suggest that you buy (shares) before June 4. It will shoot up," the Home Minister told NDTV. He expressed confidence that a stable government will be formed at the Centre and that capital markets would "certainly" give a thumbs up to the development.

Key market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended higher by 0.15% and 0.22%, respectively, today. However, the stock market's fear gauge VIX surged 16% and crossed the level-20 mark for the first time since October 27, 2023. BSE Benchmark Sensex has also fallen 623.65 points in the past month, while Nifty has fallen 168.45 points. VIX is a volatility index calculated by the exchange to measure the market's anticipation for volatility and fluctuations in the near term. In the last month, India VIX has risen 65.20%, while it surged 84.92% in six months and 40.33% in the year-to-date period.

A recent research report by Bernstein last month said that the media opinion polls about results may be "hyped" and the incumbent government, even though is likely to continue in power, may not be getting as many Lok Sabha seats as predicted in the opinion polls. A likely aftermath of the situation, as apprehended by the report is a correction in the market. The report states, "A correction is inevitable, and markets that are simply looking for a reason to fall may overreact to a sentiment that may not mean much rationally".

Notably, Home Minister Amit Shah, who is an avid investor, has invested in stocks of 181 listed companies, valuing his equity portfolio at ₹17.43 crore, according to the affidavit filed with the Election Commission of India. Shah's top bets include 4,000 shares of Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd valued at ₹1.06 crore, 6,176 shares of fast-moving consumer goods giant Hindustan Unilever worth ₹1.35 crore, and 100 shares of tyre maker MRF having a market value of ₹1.29 crore. Shah also has investments worth over ₹95 lakh in Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care, the local arm of the American FMCG giant. Shah's wife Sonal Shah also owns shares in 79 listed companies which include 598 shares in Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care worth ₹95 lakh. The duo's investment in 10 companies is more than ₹1 crore.