US order permitting India to import Russian oil for 30 days offer little relief to refiners, says GTRI

The order of the U.S. Department of the Treasury allowing India to import Russian crude oil for a month does not offer any real relief to India’s refiners or its energy security says Delhi based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

“In practice, the waiver covers only a small and temporary volume of shipments that had already departed Russian ports before the deadline. The quantity of such oil still afloat is likely limited, offering little real relief to India’s refiners or its energy security," Ajay Srivastava, founder, GTRI said.

On March 5, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had posted on the social media platform X that the Treasury Department was issuing a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. He had emphasized that the measure was deliberately limited and would not significantly benefit the Russian government, since it only authorized transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.

GTRI points out that since more than 80% of India’s crude oil and petroleum product imports come from just two sources — West Asia (about 49% in 2025) and Russia (around 31.5%), and both currently under geopolitical strain, India that imports nearly 90% of its oil needs cannot manage its energy security through short-term permissions issued by the US government. 

“With domestic stocks covering barely 30 days of consumption, a continued supply disruption at Strait of Hormuz could quickly push up fuel prices, raise transport and logistics costs, and feed into broader inflation across the economy," Srivastava said.

The US Treasury had on March 5 issued General License No. 133, allowing the sale, delivery or offloading in India of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels on or before March 5, with the authorisation running until April 14. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified on X that the measure applies only to cargoes already stranded at sea.

 “India and Russia are sovereign states, and their bilateral energy trade does not fall under US jurisdiction. With supply risks rising and stocks thin, India must consider regular import of Russian oil rather than relying on narrow waivers covering cargoes already at sea," Srivastava said.